Watford
vs
Middlesbrough
Garuda Lions Prediction: Middlesbrough
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.20.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Middlesbrough is the favourite, not a value bet.
Watford vs Middlesbrough overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Watford vs Middlesbrough
| Probability | Watford | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.5% | 21.4% | 60.1% |
| Market | 18.1% | 21.1% | 60.8% |
| Final | 18.2% | 21.2% | 60.6% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +0.1% | -0.2% |
Why Middlesbrough
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (our 60.6% × 1.57 − 1).
Watford vs Middlesbrough match preview
Watford faces Middlesbrough in the Championship with a significant disparity in expected performance. Our model assigns Watford a 15% chance of winning, while Middlesbrough stands at 67%. The expected goals suggest a challenging match for Watford, with an expected 1.23 goals compared to Middlesbrough's 2.63. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
Recent form highlights Watford's struggles, with six matches yielding just one win, while Middlesbrough has been more consistent, recording three wins and two draws in their last six games. Additionally, there is a 74% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score in 66% of scenarios, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Watford and Middlesbrough expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.44
Watford and Middlesbrough attack and defence ratings
Watford
Middlesbrough
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Watford vs Middlesbrough markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 60.6% | 1.65 | -0.2% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Watford | 18.2% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Middlesbrough | 60.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 38.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 8.0% |
Watford vs Middlesbrough stats
Watford and Middlesbrough recent form
| Watford |
WLLWLL |
| Middlesbrough |
LWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Watford and Middlesbrough season so far
Watford record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
Watford vs Middlesbrough head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Middlesbrough | Watford | England Championship | 5-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Watford | Middlesbrough | England Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Middlesbrough | Watford | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Watford | Middlesbrough | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-04 | Middlesbrough | Watford | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-09-30 | Watford | Middlesbrough | Championship | 2-3 |
| 2023-01-28 | Middlesbrough | Watford | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-08-30 | Watford | Middlesbrough | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2021-04-05 | Middlesbrough | Watford | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2020-09-11 | Watford | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Watford vs Middlesbrough odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.1%, draw 21.1%, away 60.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.06 | 4.50 | 1.54 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 4.40 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 5.30 | 4.50 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.55 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.70 | 1.55 |
| Marathonbet | 5.15 | 4.50 | 1.52 |
| Pinnacle | 5.40 | 4.72 | 1.52 |
| SBO | 4.67 | 3.98 | 1.47 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .