Wrexham
vs
Middlesbrough
Garuda Lions Prediction: Middlesbrough
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.51.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
| Probability | Wrexham | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 21.9% | 52.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.2% | 21.9% | 52.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Middlesbrough
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough match preview
Wrexham faces Middlesbrough in the Championship with the model assigning a 25% probability of a Wrexham win, a 22% chance for a draw, and a 53% likelihood of a Middlesbrough victory. The expected goals suggest Wrexham will score 1.51 while Middlesbrough is projected to net 2.22. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Wrexham has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win in their last six matches (L-W-L-D-W-L), while Middlesbrough has been more consistent, with three wins and three draws in their last six outings (W-D-W-W-D-D). The model indicates a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 70%. The head-to-head record shows Wrexham has not won against Middlesbrough in their last three encounters, with two draws and one win for Middlesbrough.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wrexham and Middlesbrough expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.73
Wrexham and Middlesbrough attack and defence ratings
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 25.2% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Middlesbrough | 52.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.3% |
| No | 29.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 32.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough stats
Wrexham and Middlesbrough recent form
| Wrexham |
LWLDWL |
| Middlesbrough |
WDWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wrexham and Middlesbrough season so far
Wrexham record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Middlesbrough | Wrexham | League Cup | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Wrexham | Middlesbrough | England Championship | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Middlesbrough | Wrexham | England Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.