Wrexham
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Wolverhampton Wanderers
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 1.06.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Wolverhampton Wanderers is the favourite, not a value bet.
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Probability | Wrexham | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.5% | 29.6% | 42.9% |
| Market | 29.1% | 28.0% | 42.9% |
| Final | 28.7% | 28.4% | 42.9% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.4% | -0.0% |
Why Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (our 42.9% × 2.25 − 1).
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers match preview
Wrexham faces Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Championship with probabilities indicating a competitive match. The model gives Wrexham a 28% chance of winning, while Wolverhampton is favored at 42%, and a draw stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 10% probability. Expected goals suggest Wrexham will score 1.09, compared to Wolverhampton's 1.39.
In terms of recent form, Wrexham has recorded two losses, a win, a draw, and another win in their last five matches. Wolverhampton's recent results show three wins, a draw, and two losses. The model indicates a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% likelihood that both teams will score, reflecting a potentially dynamic encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wrexham and Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Wrexham and Wolverhampton Wanderers attack and defence ratings
Wrexham
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 42.9% | 2.33 | -0.0% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 28.7% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 42.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% |
| No | 50.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | |
| 0-0 | 10.1% |
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers stats
Wrexham and Wolverhampton Wanderers recent form
| Wrexham |
WLLWLD |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers |
WWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wrexham and Wolverhampton Wanderers season so far
Wrexham record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolverhampton Wanderers record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.1%, draw 28.0%, away 42.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.30 | 3.34 | 2.14 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.25 |
| Marathonbet | 3.30 | 3.34 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | 3.45 | 3.43 | 2.20 |
| SBO | 2.82 | 2.99 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .