Sheffield Utd
vs
Wrexham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sheffield Utd
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.08.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham
| Probability | Sheffield Utd | Draw | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 26.1% | 22.7% |
| Market | 38.9% | 28.0% | 33.1% |
| Final | 42.0% | 27.5% | 30.5% |
| Edge | +3.1% | -0.5% | -2.6% |
Why Sheffield Utd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.08.
- The market prices Sheffield Utd below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.0% per unit staked (our 42.0% × 2.50 − 1).
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham match preview
Sheffield Utd faces Wrexham in the Championship, with the home side holding a 42% probability of winning compared to Wrexham's 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.72 for Sheffield Utd and 1.08 for Wrexham. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Sheffield Utd recording a draw and two wins in their last six matches, while Wrexham has two wins and three losses in the same period.
In terms of scoring, our model indicates a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score. The head-to-head record in the last five encounters shows Sheffield Utd with two wins, Wrexham also with two, and one draw, suggesting a competitive matchup.
Sheffield Utd and Wrexham team news
Sheffield Utd news
- J. Shackleton — health problems
- M. Doherty — injury
Wrexham news
- G. Thomason — thigh injury
- J. Windass — ankle injury
- L. Cacace — calf injury
- M. Cleworth — muscle injury
- N. Broadhead — thigh injury
- S. Revan — hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sheffield Utd and Wrexham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Sheffield Utd and Wrexham attack and defence ratings
Sheffield Utd
Wrexham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Utd | 42.0% | 2.38 | +3.1% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Utd | 42.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Wrexham | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Utd win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham stats
Sheffield Utd and Wrexham recent form
| Sheffield Utd |
DWLWLL |
| Wrexham |
LWLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sheffield Utd and Wrexham season so far
Sheffield Utd record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Wrexham record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Sheffield Utd | Wrexham | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-26 | Wrexham | Sheffield Utd | England Championship | 5-3 |
| 2024-08-13 | Sheffield Utd | Wrexham | League Cup | 4-2 |
| 2023-02-07 | Sheffield Utd | Wrexham | FA Cup | 3-1 |
| 2023-01-29 | Wrexham | Sheffield Utd | FA Cup | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 28.0%, away 33.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.38 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.45 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.38 | 2.79 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | 3.41 | 2.98 |
| SBO | 2.34 | 2.95 | 2.59 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .