Bolton
vs
Bristol City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bristol City
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bristol City is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bolton vs Bristol City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bolton vs Bristol City
| Probability | Bolton | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.3% | 30.0% | 31.7% |
| Market | 34.1% | 26.5% | 39.4% |
| Final | 35.1% | 27.4% | 37.5% |
| Edge | +1.1% | +0.9% | -1.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (our 37.5% × 2.42 − 1).
Bolton vs Bristol City match preview
Bolton faces Bristol City in a Championship clash where the probabilities suggest a competitive match. Bolton has a 35% chance of winning, while Bristol City is slightly favored with a 38% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1 in favor of Bristol City, with a 9% chance. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Bolton recording two wins in their last five matches, while Bristol City has struggled, managing just one victory in their last six.
Expected goals for Bolton stand at 1.28, while Bristol City is projected at 1.15, indicating a closely matched encounter. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 44%, and both teams scoring is assessed at 51%. With a confidence grade of C, the match promises to be intriguing as both teams look to improve their standings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bolton and Bristol City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Bolton and Bristol City attack and defence ratings
Bolton
Bristol City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bolton vs Bristol City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol City | 37.5% | 2.67 | -1.9% | 2.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 35.1% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Bristol City | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol City win | 13.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 68.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 10.1% | |
| 1-0 | 10.0% |
Bolton vs Bristol City stats
Bolton and Bristol City recent form
| Bolton |
LDWLWW |
| Bristol City |
DLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bolton and Bristol City season so far
Bolton record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol City record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolton vs Bristol City head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Bolton vs Bristol City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 26.5%, away 39.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.72 | 3.54 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.50 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.72 | 3.54 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 3.63 | 2.38 |
| SBO | 2.58 | 3.17 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.38 |