Stoke City
vs
Bristol City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stoke City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Stoke City vs Bristol City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stoke City vs Bristol City
| Probability | Stoke City | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.7% | 27.6% | 21.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.7% | 27.6% | 21.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Stoke City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Stoke City vs Bristol City match preview
Stoke City enters this match against Bristol City with a 51% probability of winning, while the visitors have a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Stoke City, with an 11% likelihood. Stoke City has shown solid recent form, recording four wins and a draw in their last six matches. In contrast, Bristol City has struggled, with only one win in their last six outings.
In terms of expected goals, Stoke City is projected to score 1.58, while Bristol City is expected to net 0.96. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 47%, and both teams are given a 50% chance of scoring. The head-to-head record in their last two encounters stands at one win each for Stoke City and Bristol City.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stoke City and Bristol City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Stoke City and Bristol City attack and defence ratings
Stoke City
Bristol City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stoke City vs Bristol City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 50.7% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Bristol City | 21.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stoke City win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Stoke City vs Bristol City stats
Stoke City and Bristol City recent form
| Stoke City |
WLWWWD |
| Bristol City |
LLDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stoke City and Bristol City season so far
Stoke City record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Bristol City record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stoke City vs Bristol City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Bristol City | Stoke City | England Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Stoke City | Bristol City | England Championship | 5-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.