Derby
vs
Bolton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bolton
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.23.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Derby vs Bolton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derby vs Bolton
| Probability | Derby | Draw | Bolton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.0% | 24.6% | 51.5% |
| Market | 37.2% | 27.1% | 35.6% |
| Final | 33.9% | 26.5% | 39.6% |
| Edge | -3.3% | -0.6% | +4.0% |
Why Bolton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bolton below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.9% per unit staked (our 39.6% × 2.70 − 1).
Derby vs Bolton match preview
Derby faces Bolton in the Championship with a probability of 34% for a Derby win, 26% for a draw, and 40% for a Bolton victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expected goals for Derby stand at 1.23, while Bolton is projected at 1.88.
In terms of recent form, Derby has struggled with five games without a win, recording four losses and one draw. Conversely, Bolton's recent performances show a mixed bag, with two wins and four losses in their last six matches. The model indicates a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score, highlighting a potentially competitive match.
Derby and Bolton team news
Derby news
- C. Forsyth — knee injury
- C. Taylor — injury
- D. Murkin — hamstring injury
- E. Cashin — inactive
- J. Ward — inactive
- M. Clarke — calf injury
- P. Agyemang — achilles tendon injury
- S. Langas — injury
Bolton news
- E. Erhahon — thigh injury
- E. Toal — inactive
- G. Bazunu — inactive
- J. McAtee — knee injury
- J. Nelson — inactive
- R. Hardie — hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derby and Bolton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Derby and Bolton attack and defence ratings
Derby
Bolton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derby vs Bolton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 39.6% | 2.53 | +4.0% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 33.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Bolton | 39.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolton win | 29.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
Derby vs Bolton stats
Derby and Bolton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derby and Bolton season so far
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolton record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Derby vs Bolton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Derby | Bolton | League One | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-02 | Bolton | Derby | League One | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-21 | Derby | Bolton | League One | 2-1 |
| 2022-12-27 | Bolton | Derby | League One | 0-0 |
| 2019-04-13 | Derby | Bolton | Championship | 4-0 |
| 2018-09-29 | Bolton | Derby | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2018-04-07 | Derby | Bolton | Championship | 3-0 |
| 2017-08-19 | Bolton | Derby | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2016-04-09 | Derby | Bolton | Championship | 4-1 |
| 2015-08-08 | Bolton | Derby | Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derby vs Bolton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.2%, draw 27.1%, away 35.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.44 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.44 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.57 | 2.70 |
| SBO | 2.52 | 3.21 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .