Bolton
vs
Cardiff
1 – 0 Full time
| 31′ | Ben Davies | ||
| 32′ | Kyliane Dong | ||
| 37′ | Samuel Iling | ||
| 42′ | Joel Colwill | ||
| 45′ | Sam DalbyThelonius Bair | ||
| 45′ | Samuel IlingThierry Gale | ||
| 54′ | Perry Tian Hee Ng | ||
| 59′ | Joel ColwillDavid Turnbull | ||
| 64′ | Ruben RodriguesAtsuki Ito | ||
| 74′ | Christopher WillockC. Ashford | ||
| 75′ | Yousef SalechCallum Robinson | ||
| 75′ | Kyliane DongJayden Nelson | ||
| 78′ | Jayden Nelson | ||
| 83′ | Ethan ErhahonRyan Hardie | ||
| 90′ | Thierry Gale | ||
| 90′ | Thierry Gale | ||
| 90′ | Joel BaganCalum Scanlon | ||
| 90′ | Alexander Sean Pablo RobertsonRonan Kpakio |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Offsides | 7 |
| 10 | Saves | 4 |
| 250 | Accurate passes | 399 |
Bolton vs Cardiff overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bolton vs Cardiff
| Probability | Bolton | Draw | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.2% | 23.8% | 40.0% |
| Market | 36.4% | 26.3% | 37.3% |
| Final | 36.4% | 25.7% | 38.0% |
| Edge | -0.2% | -2.4% | +2.7% |
Why Cardiff
- The market prices Cardiff below the model: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bolton and Cardiff expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
Bolton and Cardiff attack and defence ratings
Bolton
Cardiff
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bolton vs Cardiff: result vs prediction
Bolton 1 – 0 Cardiff
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bolton vs Cardiff markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 38.0% | 2.63 | +2.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 36.4% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Cardiff | 38.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% |
| No | 29.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 60.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Bolton vs Cardiff stats
Bolton and Cardiff recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bolton and Cardiff going into this match
Bolton record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Cardiff record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolton vs Cardiff head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Cardiff | Bolton | League One | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Bolton | Cardiff | League One | 1-0 |
| 2018-02-13 | Cardiff | Bolton | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2017-12-23 | Bolton | Cardiff | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2016-04-23 | Cardiff | Bolton | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2015-12-05 | Bolton | Cardiff | Championship | 2-3 |
| 2015-04-06 | Cardiff | Bolton | Championship | 0-3 |
| 2014-11-04 | Bolton | Cardiff | Championship | 3-0 |
| 2014-01-25 | Bolton | Cardiff | FA Cup | 0-1 |
| 2013-04-27 | Cardiff | Bolton | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bolton vs Cardiff odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 26.4%, away 36.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.44 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
| 888Sport | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.65 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.48 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.56 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.64 | 3.73 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.45 | 3.35 | 2.48 |
| Unibet | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .