Cardiff
vs
Stoke City
1 – 1 Full time
| 23′ | B. Johnson | ||
| 27′ | Ben Wilmot | ||
| 45′ | Perry Ng | ||
| 59′ | L. BombinoE. Bocat | ||
| 59′ | G. HirstBae Jun-Ho | ||
| 63′ | J. Colwill | ||
| 69′ | R. BozenikJ. McGlynn | ||
| 69′ | J. DevennyL. Cisse | ||
| 81′ | Luke Graham | ||
| 82′ | C. WillockC. Ashford |
Match stats
| 27 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 71 | Possession % | 29 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Offsides | 4 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 489 | Accurate passes | 156 |
Cardiff vs Stoke City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cardiff vs Stoke City
| Probability | Cardiff | Draw | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.6% | 23.3% | 28.1% |
| Market | 46.1% | 25.4% | 28.5% |
| Final | 46.7% | 24.9% | 28.4% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -2.1% | -0.4% |
Why Cardiff
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.51.
- The market prices Cardiff below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cardiff and Stoke City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.52
Cardiff and Stoke City attack and defence ratings
Cardiff
Stoke City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cardiff vs Stoke City: result vs prediction
Cardiff 1 – 1 Stoke City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cardiff vs Stoke City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 46.7% | 2.14 | +2.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 46.7% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Stoke City | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% |
| No | 31.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 51.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Cardiff vs Stoke City stats
Cardiff and Stoke City recent form
| Cardiff |
LLDLDD |
| Stoke City |
WWLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cardiff and Stoke City going into this match
Cardiff record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stoke City record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cardiff vs Stoke City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Cardiff | Stoke City | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Stoke City | Cardiff | England FA Cup | 3-3 |
| 2024-12-14 | Stoke City | Cardiff | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2024-02-24 | Cardiff | Stoke City | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Stoke City | Cardiff | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-22 | Cardiff | Stoke City | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2022-12-10 | Stoke City | Cardiff | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2022-03-16 | Cardiff | Stoke City | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-30 | Stoke City | Cardiff | Championship | 3-3 |
| 2021-03-16 | Cardiff | Stoke City | Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cardiff vs Stoke City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.1%, draw 25.4%, away 28.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.08 | 3.70 | 3.15 |
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.74 | 3.26 |
| 888Sport | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.74 | 3.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.79 | 3.46 |
| SBO | 2.05 | 3.41 | 3.04 |
| Superbet | 2.07 | 3.65 | 3.40 |
| Unibet | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .