Derby
vs
West Brom
0 – 1 Full time
| 10′ | Harry Whitwell | ||
| 16′ | A. Heggebo | ||
| 26′ | Brayann Pereira | ||
| 34′ | Brayann Pereira | ||
| 34′ | Brayann Pereira | ||
| 37′ | H. WhitwellN. Galves | ||
| 46′ | R. HedgesJ. Ward | ||
| 46′ | D. SandersonL. Salvesen | ||
| 46′ | A. HeggeboR. Nzingoula | ||
| 52′ | West BromC. Townsend | ||
| 63′ | D. OzohH. Meister | ||
| 82′ | Jimmy Morgan | ||
| 84′ | E. CashinC. Blackett-Taylor |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 67 | Possession % | 33 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Offsides | 4 |
| 0 | Saves | 3 |
| 479 | Accurate passes | 203 |
Derby vs West Brom overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derby vs West Brom
| Probability | Derby | Draw | West Brom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 26.0% | 49.9% |
| Market | 27.2% | 28.0% | 44.7% |
| Final | 26.5% | 27.5% | 46.0% |
| Edge | -3.1% | -2.1% | +5.2% |
Why West Brom
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices West Brom below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derby and West Brom expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Derby and West Brom attack and defence ratings
Derby
West Brom
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Derby vs West Brom: result vs prediction
Derby 0 – 1 West Brom
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derby vs West Brom markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 46.0% | 2.17 | +5.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 26.5% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| West Brom | 46.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.6% |
Derby vs West Brom stats
Derby and West Brom recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derby and West Brom going into this match
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
West Brom record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Derby vs West Brom head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Derby | West Brom | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | West Brom | Derby | England Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-12 | West Brom | Derby | League Cup | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-21 | West Brom | Derby | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2024-12-26 | Derby | West Brom | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-23 | Derby | West Brom | League Cup | 1-0 |
| 2021-12-27 | Derby | West Brom | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-09-14 | West Brom | Derby | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2020-07-08 | West Brom | Derby | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2019-08-24 | Derby | West Brom | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derby vs West Brom odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.2%, draw 28.0%, away 44.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.30 | 3.35 | 2.12 |
| 1xBet | 3.40 | 3.42 | 2.08 |
| 888Sport | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.35 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 3.40 | 3.42 | 2.06 |
| Pinnacle | 3.56 | 3.46 | 2.16 |
| SBO | 3.26 | 3.14 | 2.06 |
| Superbet | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.12 |
| Unibet | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .