England Championship
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
Swansea
vs
Burnley
3 – 1 Full time
| 13′ | Adam Idah | ||
| 33′ | Moussa Kounfolo Yeo | ||
| 45′ | Josh KeyFilip Lissah | ||
| 54′ | Aaron RamseyLucas Pires Silva | ||
| 58′ | Largie Ramazani | ||
| 59′ | Lucas Pires Silva | ||
| 59′ | Moussa Kounfolo Yeo | ||
| 64′ | Moussa Kounfolo YeoRonald Pereira Martins | ||
| 64′ | Adam IdahZan Vipotnik | ||
| 65′ | Ugo RaghouberJamie Vardy | ||
| 68′ | Zan Vipotnik | ||
| 72′ | Filip Lissah | ||
| 77′ | Elijah JustGoncalo Franco | ||
| 82′ | Oliver SonneAndréas Hountondji | ||
| 82′ | Zeki AmdouniReo Hatate | ||
| 82′ | Largie RamazaniArmando Broja | ||
| 85′ | Stephen EustáquioJay Fulton |
Swansea
50%
Draw
27%
Burnley
24%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Offsides | 4 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 474 | Accurate passes | 369 |
Swansea vs Burnley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swansea vs Burnley
| Probability | Swansea | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.0% | 24.5% | 14.5% |
| Market | 45.9% | 27.3% | 26.8% |
| Final | 49.7% | 26.6% | 23.7% |
| Edge | +15.1% | -2.8% | -12.3% |
Why Swansea
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Swansea below the model: +15.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
48%
No goals
9%
Swansea and Burnley expected goals
Swansea
1.82
Burnley
0.78
Total expected goals: 2.60
Swansea and Burnley attack and defence ratings
Swansea
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Burnley
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
1.26 +26%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Swansea vs Burnley: result vs prediction
Swansea 3 – 1 Burnley
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swansea vs Burnley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 49.7% | 2.01 | +15.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.0% | 2.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 49.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Burnley | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.3% |
| No | 53.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win | 36.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 39.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.5% |
| 2-0 | 12.3% | |
| 1-1 | 11.6% |
Swansea vs Burnley stats
Swansea and Burnley recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swansea and Burnley going into this match
Swansea record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burnley record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swansea vs Burnley head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Swansea wins
0Draws
5Burnley wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Swansea | Burnley | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2024-11-10 | Burnley | Swansea | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-02 | Swansea | Burnley | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-10-15 | Burnley | Swansea | Championship | 4-0 |
| 2018-02-10 | Swansea | Burnley | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2017-11-18 | Burnley | Swansea | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2017-03-04 | Swansea | Burnley | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2016-08-13 | Burnley | Swansea | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2015-02-28 | Burnley | Swansea | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2014-08-23 | Swansea | Burnley | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Swansea vs Burnley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.5%, draw 27.0%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.18 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.45 | 3.52 |
| 888Sport | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.45 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.45 | 3.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.57 | 3.68 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.09 | 3.10 |
| Unibet | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.05 ▼ -0.11
X
3.45 ▼ -0.05
2
3.52 ▲ +0.43
9 snapshots recorded, from .