Southampton
vs
Portsmouth
1 – 0 Full time
| 20′ | James Bree | ||
| 32′ | Cameron Bragg | ||
| 34′ | Ebou Adams | ||
| 44′ | Cameron Bragg | ||
| 45′ | Ryan Kavuma-McQueenAdrian Segecic | ||
| 51′ | Cyle Larin | ||
| 53′ | Finn Azaz | ||
| 53′ | Jayden Meghoma | ||
| 57′ | Léo ScienzaKuryu Matsuki | ||
| 65′ | Ebou AdamsOdin Bailey | ||
| 65′ | Jayden MeghomaTerry Devlin | ||
| 65′ | Colby·BishopMarko Milovanović | ||
| 69′ | Terry Devlin | ||
| 72′ | Cyle LarinCaspar Jander | ||
| 77′ | Zak SwansonKeshi Anderson | ||
| 82′ | Keven Schlotterbeck |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 330 | Accurate passes | 305 |
Southampton vs Portsmouth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Southampton vs Portsmouth
| Probability | Southampton | Draw | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.5% | 21.7% | 19.8% |
| Market | 60.5% | 22.2% | 17.3% |
| Final | 60.0% | 22.1% | 17.9% |
| Edge | -0.5% | -0.1% | +0.6% |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Southampton and Portsmouth expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Southampton and Portsmouth attack and defence ratings
Southampton
Portsmouth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Southampton vs Portsmouth: result vs prediction
Southampton 1 – 0 Portsmouth
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Southampton vs Portsmouth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 60.0% | 1.67 | -0.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 60.0% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| Portsmouth | 17.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Southampton vs Portsmouth stats
Southampton and Portsmouth recent form
| Southampton |
LWWDDW |
| Portsmouth |
DDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Southampton and Portsmouth going into this match
Southampton record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Portsmouth record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Southampton vs Portsmouth head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Portsmouth | Southampton | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Southampton | Portsmouth | England Championship | 0-0 |
| 2019-09-24 | Portsmouth | Southampton | League Cup | 0-4 |
| 2012-04-07 | Southampton | Portsmouth | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2011-12-18 | Portsmouth | Southampton | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Southampton vs Portsmouth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.5%, draw 22.2%, away 17.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.15 | 5.21 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 4.15 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 4.43 | 5.67 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.97 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
43 snapshots recorded, from .