Southampton
vs
Portsmouth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Southampton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Southampton vs Portsmouth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Southampton vs Portsmouth
| Probability | Southampton | Draw | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.6% | 21.7% | 19.7% |
| Market | 58.4% | 23.3% | 18.3% |
| Final | 58.5% | 22.9% | 18.7% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -1.6% | +1.5% |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Southampton vs Portsmouth match preview
Southampton will face Portsmouth in the Championship, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. Southampton holds a 60% probability of winning, while the chances of a draw are 22% and Portsmouth stands at 18%. The expected goals for Southampton is 2.22, compared to Portsmouth's 1.24, indicating a potential advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Southampton has recorded one loss, two wins, and two draws in their last five matches, while Portsmouth has managed two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. Historically, the last two encounters between the teams have resulted in two draws, with neither side securing a victory. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 67%, and both teams to score stands at 64%.
Southampton and Portsmouth team news
Southampton news
- C. Jander — lacking match fitness
Portsmouth news
- C. Ogilvie — knee injury
- F. Umeh — hamstring injury
- J. Murphy — groin injury
- K. Anderson — muscle injury
- L. Brooke-Smith — ankle injury
- M. Kosznovszky — knee injury
- Marezi — calf injury
- T. Waddingham — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Southampton and Portsmouth expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Southampton and Portsmouth attack and defence ratings
Southampton
Portsmouth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Southampton vs Portsmouth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 58.5% | 1.71 | +0.1% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 58.5% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Portsmouth | 18.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 37.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 41.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Southampton vs Portsmouth stats
Southampton and Portsmouth recent form
| Southampton |
LWWDDW |
| Portsmouth |
DDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Southampton and Portsmouth season so far
Southampton record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Portsmouth record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Southampton vs Portsmouth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Portsmouth | Southampton | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Southampton | Portsmouth | England Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Southampton vs Portsmouth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.4%, draw 23.3%, away 18.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 4.00 | 5.03 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.15 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.14 | 5.09 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.73 | 4.55 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .