Garuda Lions
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League Cup · Full time ·Round of 64

Newcastle United vs West Brom

3 – 2 Full time

St James' Park, NewcastleReferee: Robert Madley, England

Newcastle United 55%
Draw 17%
West Brom 28%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Newcastle United vs West Brom overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newcastle United vs West Brom

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewcastle UnitedDrawWest Brom
Model8.9%15.8%75.3%
Market69.7%18.1%12.2%
Final54.5%17.5%28.0%
Edge-60.8%-2.3%+63.1%

Confidence: Medium

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newcastle Unit ↓ / West Brom → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 10% 9% 12% 1 7% 9% 8% 11% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 3%

Newcastle United and West Brom expected goals

Newcastle United 0.88
West Brom 2.71

Total expected goals: 3.59

Newcastle United and West Brom attack and defence ratings

Newcastle United

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.46 +46%

West Brom

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newcastle United vs West Brom: result vs prediction

Newcastle United 3 – 2 West Brom

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

League Cup

Before and after this match

Newcastle United vs West Brom markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Newcastle United 54.5% 1.83 -60.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.5% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.1% 1.81 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 82.5% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 91.1% 1.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newcastle United54.5%
Draw17.5%
West Brom28.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%
Both teams to scoreYes55.1%
No44.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.0%
12 (either side)82.5%
X2 (draw or away)45.5%
Handicap -1Newcastle United win2.9%
Push (exactly one goal)6.0%
Loss91.1%
Correct score (top 3)0-210.2%
0-39.2%
1-28.9%

Newcastle United vs West Brom stats

Newcastle United and West Brom recent form

newest first
Newcastle United DLWDWL
West Brom WWWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newcastle United vs West Brom head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Newcastle United wins 3Draws 3West Brom wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2021-03-07West BromNewcastle UnitedPremier League0-0
2020-12-12Newcastle UnitedWest BromPremier League2-1
2020-03-03West BromNewcastle UnitedFA Cup2-3
2018-04-28Newcastle UnitedWest BromPremier League0-1
2017-11-28West BromNewcastle UnitedPremier League2-2
2016-02-06Newcastle UnitedWest BromPremier League1-0
2015-12-28West BromNewcastle UnitedPremier League1-0
2015-05-09Newcastle UnitedWest BromPremier League1-1
2014-11-09West BromNewcastle UnitedPremier League0-2
2014-01-01West BromNewcastle UnitedPremier League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newcastle United vs West Brom odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 69.7%, draw 18.1%, away 12.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.34 5.00 7.90
1xBet 1.38 5.30 8.10
Bet365 1.36 5.00 7.50
BetVictor 1.33 5.25 8.50
Betano 1.39 5.50 7.90
Betfair 1.33 5.00 7.50
Dafabet 1.38 5.40 7.60
Marathonbet 1.37 5.30 8.30
Pinnacle 1.37 5.42 7.78
SBO 1.34 4.79 6.86
Superbet 1.36 5.15 6.90
Unibet 1.32 5.30 8.00
William Hill 1.36 4.80 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.36 ▼ -0.01
X 5.25 ▲ +0.42
2 7.78 ▲ +0.43

12 snapshots recorded, from .