West Brom
vs
Burnley
3 – 1 Full time
West Brom vs Burnley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: West Brom vs Burnley
| Probability | West Brom | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.4% | 18.5% | 9.1% |
| Market | 33.7% | 28.6% | 37.7% |
| Final | 43.4% | 26.1% | 30.6% |
| Edge | +38.7% | -10.1% | -28.6% |
Why West Brom
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices West Brom below the model: +38.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
West Brom and Burnley expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
West Brom and Burnley attack and defence ratings
West Brom
Burnley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
West Brom vs Burnley: result vs prediction
West Brom 3 – 1 Burnley
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
West Brom vs Burnley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 43.4% | 2.31 | +38.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 43.4% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Burnley | 30.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.1% |
| No | 52.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win | 49.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 27.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 3-0 | 9.9% |
West Brom vs Burnley stats
West Brom and Burnley recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
West Brom and Burnley going into this match
West Brom record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burnley record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
West Brom vs Burnley head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
West Brom vs Burnley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 28.7%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.76 | 3.25 | 2.48 |
| 1xBet | 2.80 | 3.18 | 2.50 |
| 888Sport | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.80 | 3.18 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.90 | 3.33 | 2.58 |
| SBO | 2.62 | 3.04 | 2.37 |
| Superbet | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.57 |
| Unibet | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .