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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

Napoli vs Arsenal

0 – 1 Full time

42′Billy Gilmour
46′A. MeretV. Milinkovic-Savic
58′Alisson SantosA. Vergara
58′M. PolitanoC. Favasuli
65′M. MerinoBruno Guimaraes
66′E. EzeC. Tzolis
73′V. GyokeresK. Havertz
73′B. SakaN. Madueke
75′M. Odegaard
76′R. HojlundDavid Neres
77′S. LobotkaL. Lucca
82′B. WhiteM. Zubimendi
85′Lorenzo Lucca
90′Martin Ødegaard

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, NaplesReferee: Glenn Nyberg, Sweden

Napoli 20%
Draw 26%
Arsenal 54%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

5 Shots 26
3 Shots on target 8
42 Possession % 58
0 Corners 6
12 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1
6 Saves 3
383 Accurate passes 559

Napoli vs Arsenal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Napoli vs Arsenal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNapoliDrawArsenal
Model28.7%30.4%40.8%
Market16.9%24.4%58.7%
Final19.9%25.9%54.2%
Edge+11.8%+6.1%-17.9%

Confidence: High

Why Arsenal

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Napoli ↓ / Arsenal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 11% 8% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Napoli and Arsenal expected goals

Napoli 1.05
Arsenal 1.28

Total expected goals: 2.33

Napoli and Arsenal attack and defence ratings

Napoli

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Arsenal

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.58 -42%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Napoli vs Arsenal: result vs prediction

Napoli 0 – 1 Arsenal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Napoli vs Arsenal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Arsenal 54.2% 1.84 -17.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.6% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score No 51.7% 1.93 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 80.1% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.5% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Napoli19.9%
Draw25.9%
Arsenal54.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.4%
Under 2.558.6%
Both teams to scoreYes48.3%
No51.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.8%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)80.1%
Handicap -1Arsenal win18.9%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss59.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
0-111.2%
0-011.0%

Napoli vs Arsenal stats

Napoli and Arsenal recent form

newest first
Napoli LLWWWL
Arsenal WWWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Napoli vs Arsenal head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

1Napoli wins 0Draws 3Arsenal wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2019-04-18NapoliArsenalUEFA Europa League0-1
2019-04-11ArsenalNapoliUEFA Europa League2-0
2013-12-11NapoliArsenalUEFA Champions League2-0
2013-10-01ArsenalNapoliUEFA Champions League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Napoli vs Arsenal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.9%, draw 24.4%, away 58.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 5.40 3.80 1.61
1xBet 5.89 4.00 1.68
888Sport 5.50 3.70 1.62
Bet365 6.00 3.90 1.60
BetVictor 5.75 4.00 1.57
Betano 5.90 3.85 1.67
Betfair 5.50 3.90 1.62
Dafabet 4.70 3.70 1.79
Marathonbet 5.80 3.94 1.65
Pinnacle 6.02 3.93 1.63
SBO 5.32 3.74 1.60
Superbet 5.35 4.00 1.63
Unibet 5.75 3.90 1.62
William Hill 5.50 3.70 1.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.62 ▲ +1.35
X 3.90 ▲ +0.17
2 1.62 ▼ -0.20

10 snapshots recorded, from .