Borussia Dortmund
vs
Villarreal
3 – 2 Full time
| 27′ | K. KaretsasE. Nwaneri | ||
| 38′ | Waldemar Anton | ||
| 38′ | Pau Navarro | ||
| 42′ | Sergi Cardona | ||
| 46′ | S. CardonaA. Freeman | ||
| 53′ | R. Veiga | ||
| 59′ | T. OluwaseyiA. Moleiro | ||
| 59′ | N. SalibaN. Pepe | ||
| 66′ | S. Mourino | ||
| 75′ | M. SabitzerJ. Bellingham | ||
| 75′ | F. NmechaF. Silva | ||
| 75′ | T. BuchananA. Diatta | ||
| 80′ | S. Guirassy | ||
| 82′ | M. BeierK. Prates | ||
| 82′ | Borussia DortmundC. Chukwuemeka | ||
| 83′ | Santiago Mouriño | ||
| 83′ | P. NavarroG. Moreno | ||
| 85′ | S. Guirassy | ||
| 90′ | S. Guirassy |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 461 | Accurate passes | 413 |
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal
| Probability | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.1% | 19.6% | 18.3% |
| Market | 52.6% | 23.6% | 23.8% |
| Final | 54.9% | 22.6% | 22.4% |
| Edge | +9.5% | -4.1% | -5.5% |
Why Borussia Dortmund
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Borussia Dortmund below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.84
Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal attack and defence ratings
Borussia Dortmund
Villarreal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal: result vs prediction
Borussia Dortmund 3 – 2 Villarreal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 54.9% | 1.82 | +9.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 54.9% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Villarreal | 22.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% |
| No | 31.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win | 41.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 38.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | |
| 3-1 | 7.5% |
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal stats
Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal recent form
| Borussia Dortmund |
WWWWWL |
| Villarreal |
LLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | Borussia Dortmund | Villarreal | UEFA Champions League | 4-0 |
| 2024-08-06 | Borussia Dortmund | Villarreal | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2022-07-22 | Borussia Dortmund | Villarreal | Friendlies Clubs | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.6%, draw 23.6%, away 23.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.76 | 4.00 | 3.95 |
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 4.12 | 4.22 |
| 888Sport | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 4.05 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.79 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 4.10 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 4.06 | 4.17 |
| SBO | 1.78 | 3.85 | 3.65 |
| Superbet | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.85 |
| Unibet | 1.80 | 3.95 | 4.10 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .