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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 2

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund

2 – 3 Full time

32′F. ManeE. Nwaneri
40′Ozan Kabak
45′Albian Hajdari
45′L. Avdullahu
46′F. NmechaJ. Veerman
54′T. Lemperle
61′S. Guirassy
62′K. KaretsasF. Silva
63′Wouter Burger
63′J. GadouL. Reggiani
66′F. Silva
73′A. HlozekA. Kramaric
73′P. WimmerB. Conte
76′Luca Reggiani
78′Maximilian Beier
79′O. KabakR. Hranac
79′W. BurgerN. De Cat
80′Andrej Kramarić
84′T. LemperleM. Moerstedt
86′A. Hajdari
87′S. GuirassyM. Sabitzer

SNP Arena, SinsheimReferee: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

Hoffenheim 35%
Draw 25%
Borussia Dortmund 39%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 4
60 Possession % 40
10 Corners 3
13 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2
2 Saves 4
400 Accurate passes 253

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHoffenheimDrawBorussia Dortmund
Model32.8%26.4%40.8%
Market36.2%24.9%38.9%
Final35.4%25.2%39.4%
Edge-3.4%+1.6%+1.8%

Confidence: High

Why Borussia Dortmund

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hoffenheim ↓ / Borussia Dortm → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 12% 9% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 5%

Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund expected goals

Hoffenheim 1.78
Borussia Dortmund 1.79

Total expected goals: 3.57

Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund attack and defence ratings

Hoffenheim

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Borussia Dortmund

Attack 1.38 +38%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund: result vs prediction

Hoffenheim 2 – 3 Borussia Dortmund

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Borussia Dortmund 39.4% 2.54 +1.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.9% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.5% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.2% 1.69 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hoffenheim35.4%
Draw25.2%
Borussia Dortmund39.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%
Both teams to scoreYes68.5%
No31.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.6%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)64.6%
Handicap -1Borussia Dortmund win22.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.0%
Loss59.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
1-28.6%
2-17.7%

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund stats

Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund recent form

newest first
Hoffenheim LWLWDW
Borussia Dortmund WWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Hoffenheim wins 1Draws 7Borussia Dortmund wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18HoffenheimBorussia DortmundBundesliga2-1
2025-12-07Borussia DortmundHoffenheimBundesliga2-0
2025-04-26HoffenheimBorussia DortmundBundesliga2-3
2024-12-15Borussia DortmundHoffenheimBundesliga1-1
2024-02-25Borussia DortmundHoffenheimBundesliga2-3
2023-11-01Borussia DortmundHoffenheimDFB Pokal1-0
2023-09-29HoffenheimBorussia DortmundBundesliga1-3
2023-02-25HoffenheimBorussia DortmundBundesliga0-1
2022-09-02Borussia DortmundHoffenheimBundesliga1-0
2022-01-22HoffenheimBorussia DortmundBundesliga2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.7%, draw 24.9%, away 40.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.82 3.80 2.20
1xBet 2.74 3.92 2.53
Bet365 2.62 3.75 2.45
BetVictor 2.55 3.90 2.40
Betano 2.92 3.80 2.25
Betfair 2.90 4.00 2.20
Dafabet 2.90 3.90 2.28
Marathonbet 2.71 3.85 2.48
Pinnacle 2.68 3.87 2.48
SBO 2.61 3.34 2.23
Superbet 2.95 3.80 2.27
Unibet 2.80 3.75 2.23
William Hill 2.60 3.60 2.40
tipico_de 2.65 3.80 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.65 ▲ +0.05
X 3.86 ▲ +0.06
2 2.46 ▲ +0.01

26 snapshots recorded, from .