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DFB Pokal · Full time ·Round of 64

HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund

0 – 5 Full time

33′J. Wrede
36′D. Svensson
41′S. Inacio
45′S. Inacio
46′J. SchoonN. Ahmann
46′F. NmechaC. Chukwuemeka
46′J. RyersonM. Beier
55′P. OldagL. Aug
55′R. SchickM. Magens
58′D. SvenssonK. Prates
59′F. Silva
67′F. LemkeM. Wilhelm
67′T. KohlerS. Demirovic
67′W. AntonL. Reggiani
72′Hammed Nawaz
77′S. InacioK. Karetsas

Volksparkstadion, HamburgReferee: T. Bauer

HEBC 3%
Draw 6%
Borussia Dortmund 91%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

2 Shots 36
1 Shots on target 12
23 Possession % 77
2 Corners 17
10 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 4
8 Saves 1
121 Accurate passes 568

HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund overview

Garuda Lions analysis: HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHEBCDrawBorussia Dortmund
Model6.4%13.3%80.3%
Market1.6%3.5%95.0%
Final2.8%5.9%91.3%
Edge+4.8%+9.8%-14.6%

Confidence: Medium

Why Borussia Dortmund

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 0.78.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

HEBC ↓ / Borussia Dortm → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 10% 15% 1 8% 8% 12% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

HEBC and Borussia Dortmund expected goals

HEBC 0.78
Borussia Dortmund 2.94

Total expected goals: 3.72

HEBC and Borussia Dortmund attack and defence ratings

HEBC

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Borussia Dortmund

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund: result vs prediction

HEBC 0 – 5 Borussia Dortmund

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

DFB Pokal

Before and after this match

HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Borussia Dortmund 91.3% 1.10 -14.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.7% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.9% 1.93 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 97.2% 1.03 — —
Handicap -1 Borussia Dortmund win 61.7% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2HEBC2.8%
Draw5.9%
Borussia Dortmund91.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.7%
Under 2.528.3%
Both teams to scoreYes51.9%
No48.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)8.7%
12 (either side)94.1%
X2 (draw or away)97.2%
Handicap -1Borussia Dortmund win61.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss19.7%
Correct score (top 3)0-210.5%
0-310.3%
1-28.2%

HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund stats

HEBC and Borussia Dortmund recent form

newest first
HEBC no matches on record
Borussia Dortmund WWWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 1.6%, draw 3.5%, away 95.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 41.00 23.00 1.00
1xBet 65.00 26.00 1.00
Bet365 67.00 26.00 1.00
Betano 24.00 22.00 1.01
Betfair 56.00 51.00 1.01
Dafabet 70.00 35.00 1.01
Superbet 50.00 50.00 1.00
William Hill 101.00 29.00 1.02

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 60.50 ▲ +10.50
X 27.50 ▲ +1.50
2 1.00 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .