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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 1

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

2 – 0 Full time

Signal Iduna Park, DortmundReferee: Felix Zwayer, Germany

Borussia Dortmund 70%
Draw 18%
Hamburger SV 12%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBorussia DortmundDrawHamburger SV
Model62.6%21.5%15.9%
Market72.3%16.9%10.8%
Final69.9%18.1%12.0%
Edge-9.7%+4.6%+5.1%

Confidence: High

Why Borussia Dortmund

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.18.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Borussia Dortm ↓ / Hamburger SV → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 2 8% 9% 6% 3 6% 8% 4+ 7% 8% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV expected goals

Borussia Dortmund 2.68
Hamburger SV 1.18

Total expected goals: 3.86

Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV attack and defence ratings

Borussia Dortmund

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Hamburger SV

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV: result vs prediction

Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 Hamburger SV

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Borussia Dortmund 69.9% 1.43 -9.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.6% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.9% 1.54 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.0% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Borussia Dortmund win 42.7% 2.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Borussia Dortmund69.9%
Draw18.1%
Hamburger SV12.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.6%
Under 2.530.4%
Both teams to scoreYes64.9%
No35.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.0%
12 (either side)81.9%
X2 (draw or away)30.1%
Handicap -1Borussia Dortmund win42.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss37.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.5%
1-19.4%
2-07.9%

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV stats

Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV recent form

newest first
Borussia Dortmund WWLWLL
Hamburger SV WDWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Borussia Dortmund wins 2Draws 2Hamburger SV wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21Borussia DortmundHamburger SVBundesliga3-2
2025-11-08Hamburger SVBorussia DortmundBundesliga1-1
2018-02-10Borussia DortmundHamburger SVBundesliga2-0
2017-09-20Hamburger SVBorussia DortmundBundesliga0-3
2017-04-04Borussia DortmundHamburger SVBundesliga3-0
2016-11-05Hamburger SVBorussia DortmundBundesliga2-5
2016-04-17Borussia DortmundHamburger SVBundesliga3-0
2015-11-20Hamburger SVBorussia DortmundBundesliga3-1
2015-03-07Hamburger SVBorussia DortmundBundesliga0-0
2014-10-04Borussia DortmundHamburger SVBundesliga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 72.6%, draw 16.9%, away 10.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.30 5.20 9.20
1xBet 1.34 5.89 9.95
888Sport 1.30 5.00 8.50
Bet365 1.30 5.75 9.00
BetVictor 1.29 5.00 8.50
Betano 1.34 5.50 8.25
Betfair 1.30 5.50 9.50
Dafabet 1.33 5.80 8.40
Marathonbet 1.32 5.80 9.80
Pinnacle 1.32 5.90 8.96
SBO 1.29 4.94 6.95
Superbet 1.33 5.75 8.20
Unibet 1.28 5.60 9.00
William Hill 1.30 5.00 8.50
onexbet 1.37 5.59 9.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.30 ▼ -0.06
X 5.55 ▼ -0.14
2 8.73 ▼ -0.72

17 snapshots recorded, from .