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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 2

Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05

0 – 5 Full time

-5′Sheraldo Becker
19′S. Becker
31′Anthony Caci
36′Zakaria El Ouahdi
41′P. Mwene
46′J. TorunarighaS. Nandja
46′B. NadirF. Vieira
46′M. AdelineP. Daka
48′P. Tietz
64′T. MoffiO. Stange
68′S. BeckerR. Konigsdorffer
81′A. CaciD. da Costa
83′P. Tietz
84′D. WolfeL. Lemke
85′Phillipp Mwene
88′K. SanoL. Maloney
88′Lee Jae-SungO. Ruoppi
88′S. PoschR. Nakuzola
90′R. Konigsdorffer

Volksparkstadion, HamburgerReferee: Tobias Reichel

Hamburger SV 29%
Draw 26%
Mainz 05 45%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 17
1 Shots on target 8
54 Possession % 46
4 Corners 5
14 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 1
347 Accurate passes 269

Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHamburger SVDrawMainz 05
Model17.0%20.5%62.5%
Market32.7%27.9%39.4%
Final28.8%26.1%45.1%
Edge-15.7%-7.5%+23.1%

Confidence: High

Why Mainz 05

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.49.
  • The market prices Mainz 05 below the model: +23.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hamburger SV ↓ / Mainz 05 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 6% 7% 1 8% 9% 8% 9% 2 5% 6% 5% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Hamburger SV and Mainz 05 expected goals

Hamburger SV 1.49
Mainz 05 2.57

Total expected goals: 4.06

Hamburger SV and Mainz 05 attack and defence ratings

Hamburger SV

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Mainz 05

Attack 1.56 +56%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05: result vs prediction

Hamburger SV 0 – 5 Mainz 05

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mainz 05 45.1% 2.22 +23.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.9% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.6% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Mainz 05 win 43.0% 2.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hamburger SV28.8%
Draw26.1%
Mainz 0545.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.9%
Under 2.525.1%
Both teams to scoreYes69.6%
No30.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.9%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)71.2%
Handicap -1Mainz 05 win43.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss37.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.9%
1-18.3%
1-37.6%

Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 stats

Hamburger SV and Mainz 05 recent form

newest first
Hamburger SV LWDWWL
Mainz 05 DWWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Hamburger SV wins 4Draws 3Mainz 05 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-20Mainz 05Hamburger SVBundesliga1-1
2025-10-05Hamburger SVMainz 05Bundesliga4-0
2018-03-03Hamburger SVMainz 05Bundesliga0-0
2017-10-14Mainz 05Hamburger SVBundesliga3-2
2017-05-07Hamburger SVMainz 05Bundesliga0-0
2016-12-17Mainz 05Hamburger SVBundesliga3-1
2016-04-30Mainz 05Hamburger SVBundesliga0-0
2015-12-05Hamburger SVMainz 05Bundesliga1-3
2015-05-03Mainz 05Hamburger SVBundesliga1-2
2014-12-07Hamburger SVMainz 05Bundesliga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.5%, draw 27.1%, away 39.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.70 3.50 2.42
1xBet 3.02 3.48 2.52
Bet365 2.90 3.40 2.40
BetVictor 2.80 3.50 2.38
Betano 2.90 3.50 2.40
Betfair 2.80 3.75 2.40
Dafabet 2.85 3.55 2.43
Marathonbet 2.97 3.42 2.48
Pinnacle 2.96 3.44 2.47
SBO 2.62 3.20 2.30
Superbet 2.87 3.55 2.42
Unibet 2.70 3.50 2.38
William Hill 2.80 3.25 2.40
betclic_fr 2.42 3.42 2.55

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.93 ▲ +0.51
X 3.43 ▲ +0.01
2 2.44 ▼ -0.09

28 snapshots recorded, from .