Garuda Lions
Today
Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 2

SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg

0 – 1 Full time

26′M. Eggestein
38′Laurin Curda
43′Yuito Suzuki
46′R. PhilippeS. Tigges
48′Jano Ter-Horst
56′Philipp Lienhart
59′Yannick Engelhardt
74′L. UlrichO. Batista Meier
74′J. BesteL. Kubler
74′D. ScherhantV. Grifo
82′J. ter HorstJ. Sticker
82′M. PieringerS. Marino
82′Y. EngelhardtB. Yilmaz
82′Y. SuzukiK. Goto
89′M. HansenN. Mohr
90′Tjark Lasse Scheller

Home Deluxe Arena, PaderbornReferee: Max Burda, Germany

SC Paderborn 07 27%
Draw 25%
Freiburg 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 16
3 Shots on target 5
59 Possession % 41
5 Corners 4
16 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1
4 Saves 3
443 Accurate passes 276

SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySC Paderborn 07DrawFreiburg
Model31.4%24.0%44.6%
Market25.9%25.6%48.5%
Final27.3%25.2%47.5%
Edge+5.4%-1.6%-3.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Freiburg

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SC Paderborn 0 ↓ / Freiburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 4%

SC Paderborn 07 and Freiburg expected goals

SC Paderborn 07 1.95
Freiburg 2.09

Total expected goals: 4.04

SC Paderborn 07 and Freiburg attack and defence ratings

SC Paderborn 07

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Freiburg

Attack 1.49 +49%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg: result vs prediction

SC Paderborn 07 0 – 1 Freiburg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Freiburg 47.5% 2.11 -3.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.8% 1.36 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.0% 1.35 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.4% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SC Paderborn 0727.3%
Draw25.2%
Freiburg47.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.8%
Under 2.526.2%
Both teams to scoreYes74.0%
No26.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.5%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)72.7%
Handicap -1Freiburg win26.6%
Push (exactly one goal)18.0%
Loss55.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.4%
1-28.2%
2-27.2%

SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg stats

SC Paderborn 07 and Freiburg recent form

newest first
SC Paderborn 07 DWWDLL
Freiburg WWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

3SC Paderborn 07 wins 1Draws 3Freiburg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-11-01FreiburgSC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal1-3
2020-01-25FreiburgSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga0-2
2019-08-24SC Paderborn 07FreiburgBundesliga1-3
2016-04-29SC Paderborn 07Freiburg2. Bundesliga1-2
2015-11-22FreiburgSC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga4-1
2015-05-02FreiburgSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga1-2
2014-12-06SC Paderborn 07FreiburgBundesliga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.2%, draw 25.7%, away 47.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.35 3.65 2.02
1xBet 3.72 3.86 2.05
Bet365 3.70 3.70 1.95
BetVictor 3.50 3.70 1.95
Betano 3.45 3.70 2.05
Betfair 3.60 3.70 2.00
Dafabet 3.55 3.70 2.06
Marathonbet 3.66 3.80 2.02
Pinnacle 3.75 3.76 1.99
SBO 3.02 3.28 2.03
Superbet 3.50 3.70 2.07
Unibet 3.40 3.65 1.98
William Hill 3.40 3.50 1.95
onexbet 2.92 3.62 2.52

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.68 ▲ +0.78
X 3.73 ▲ +0.01
2 1.97 ▼ -0.52

26 snapshots recorded, from .