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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 3

Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach

5 – 0 Full time

13′Tim Kleindienst
14′Kevin Diks
23′Yannick Engelhardt
29′Igor Matanovic
45′Hugo BolinShuto Machino
52′Tim Kleindienst
67′Robin HackWael Mohya
67′Franck HonoratIsac Lidberg
67′Derry Lionel ScherhantVincenzo Grifo
77′Igor Matanovic
78′Igor MatanovicLucas Höler
78′Yuito SuzukiKeisuke Goto
79′Yannick Engelhardt
82′Jan-Niklas BesteCyriaque Irié
82′Philipp TreuLukas Kübler
83′Kevin Stögermathieu nguefack
86′Maximilian Eggestein
90′Cyriaque Irié
90′Joe Scally

Europa-Park-Stadion, FreiburgReferee: Richard Hempel

Freiburg 58%
Draw 22%
Borussia M.Gladbach 20%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 5
9 Shots on target 0
60 Possession % 40
6 Corners 2
7 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 1
0 Saves 4
489 Accurate passes 269

Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFreiburgDrawBorussia M.Gladbach
Model61.4%20.6%18.0%
Market56.5%22.9%20.7%
Final57.7%22.3%20.0%
Edge+4.9%-2.3%-2.6%

Confidence: Medium

Why Freiburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.40.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Freiburg below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Freiburg ↓ / Borussia M.Gla → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 5% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 6% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 3%

Freiburg and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals

Freiburg 2.86
Borussia M.Gladbach 1.40

Total expected goals: 4.25

Freiburg and Borussia M.Gladbach attack and defence ratings

Freiburg

Attack 1.41 +41%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Borussia M.Gladbach

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach: result vs prediction

Freiburg 5 – 0 Borussia M.Gladbach

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Freiburg 57.7% 1.73 +4.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.7% 1.32 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.9% 1.41 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.0% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Freiburg win 42.0% 2.38 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Freiburg57.7%
Draw22.3%
Borussia M.Gladbach20.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.7%
Under 2.524.3%
Both teams to scoreYes70.9%
No29.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.0%
12 (either side)77.7%
X2 (draw or away)42.3%
Handicap -1Freiburg win42.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss38.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.7%
1-18.2%
3-17.5%

Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach stats

Freiburg and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form

newest first
Freiburg WWWWWL
Borussia M.Gladbach LLWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Freiburg wins 5Draws 0Borussia M.Gladbach wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-22FreiburgBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga2-1
2025-10-05Borussia M.GladbachFreiburgBundesliga0-0
2025-04-12Borussia M.GladbachFreiburgBundesliga1-2
2024-11-30FreiburgBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga3-1
2024-03-30Borussia M.GladbachFreiburgBundesliga0-3
2023-11-04FreiburgBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga3-3
2023-03-04Borussia M.GladbachFreiburgBundesliga0-0
2022-09-11FreiburgBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga0-0
2022-04-23FreiburgBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga3-3
2021-12-05Borussia M.GladbachFreiburgBundesliga0-6

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.6%, draw 23.5%, away 20.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.90 3.75 3.60
1xBet 1.74 4.37 4.72
Bet365 1.70 4.00 4.75
BetVictor 1.67 4.10 4.50
Betano 1.72 4.25 4.85
Betfair 1.67 4.20 4.60
Dafabet 1.86 3.85 3.95
Marathonbet 1.71 4.30 4.65
Pinnacle 1.71 4.22 4.66
SBO 1.67 3.76 4.13
Unibet 1.81 3.80 3.90
William Hill 1.67 3.90 4.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.70 ▼ -0.15
X 4.20 ▲ +0.35
2 4.65 ▲ +0.75

17 snapshots recorded, from .