Bundesliga · 2026-09-12T16:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 3

FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen

1 – 1 Full time

11′			Linton Maina
64′			Thijs DallingaRagnar Ache
65′			Linton MainaÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson
65′			Alessio Castro-MontesSebastian Soraas Sebulonsen
69′			Niclas Füllkrug
70′			Ludovit ReisDariusz Stalmach
72′			Olivier Deman
74′			Mikey MooreSaid El Mala
81′			Arthur Augusto De Matos SoaresMick Schmetgens
81′			Niclas FüllkrugCédric Itten
83′			Youri RegeerMitchell Weiser
83′			Eren DinkciPaul Erevbenagie
86′			Gideon Mensah
90′			Tom KraußPaul Okon-Engstler
90′			Paul Okon-Engstler

RheinEnergieStadion, CologneReferee: Florian Exner

FC Cologne

48%

Draw

25%

Werder Bremen

27%

Confidence: High · blended with market odds

Match stats

15	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	5
47	Possession %	53
8	Corners	5
11	Fouls	12
1	Offsides	1
4	Saves	5
393	Accurate passes	462

FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FC Cologne	Draw	Werder Bremen
Model	51.8%	24.7%	23.5%
Market	46.7%	25.2%	28.1%
Final	48.0%	25.1%	27.0%
Edge	+5.2%	-0.5%	-4.7%

Confidence: High

Why FC Cologne

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.38.
The market prices FC Cologne below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

88%

3+ goals

67%

No goals

FC Cologne and Werder Bremen expected goals

FC Cologne

2.31

Werder Bremen

1.38

Total expected goals: 3.70

FC Cologne and Werder Bremen attack and defence ratings

FC Cologne

Attack

1.17 +17%

Defence

1.12 +12%

Werder Bremen

Attack

0.84 -16%

Defence

1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen: result vs prediction

FC Cologne 1 – 1 Werder Bremen

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach · 2026-09-12
Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page · 2026-09-12
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart · 2026-09-12
Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page · 2026-09-12
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV · 2026-09-13
SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page · 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

FC Cologne, previous: VfB Stuttgart v FC Cologne analysis
FC Cologne, next: Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne prediction
Werder Bremen, previous: Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: odds and pick
Werder Bremen, next: Werder Bremen – Augsburg, 2026-09-19

FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Cologne	48.0%	2.08	+5.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.3%	1.49	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	67.4%	1.48	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.9%	1.33	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	48.2%	2.08	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FC Cologne	48.0%
	Draw	25.1%
	Werder Bremen	27.0%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.3%
	Under 2.5	32.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	67.4%
	No	32.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	73.0%
	12 (either side)	74.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	52.0%
Handicap -1	FC Cologne win	32.0%
	Push (exactly one goal)	19.8%
	Loss	48.2%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.8%
	2-1	9.4%
	2-0	6.8%

FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen stats

FC Cologne and Werder Bremen recent form

newest first

FC Cologne	LWWLLD
Werder Bremen	WLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3FC Cologne wins 4Draws 3Werder Bremen wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-12	FC Cologne	Werder Bremen	Bundesliga	3-1
2025-11-29	Werder Bremen	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	1-1
2024-02-16	FC Cologne	Werder Bremen	Bundesliga	0-1
2023-09-23	Werder Bremen	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	2-1
2023-05-20	Werder Bremen	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	1-1
2023-01-21	FC Cologne	Werder Bremen	Bundesliga	7-1
2021-03-07	FC Cologne	Werder Bremen	Bundesliga	1-1
2020-11-06	Werder Bremen	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	1-1
2020-06-27	Werder Bremen	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	6-1
2019-12-21	FC Cologne	Werder Bremen	Bundesliga	1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 25.3%, away 28.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.00	3.65	3.35
1xBet	2.12	3.90	3.47
Bet365	2.00	3.80	3.40
BetVictor	2.05	3.80	3.25
Betano	2.07	3.75	3.35
Betfair	2.00	3.80	3.50
Dafabet	2.05	3.70	3.40
Marathonbet	2.09	3.84	3.42
Pinnacle	2.09	3.83	3.45
SBO	2.05	3.52	3.05
Unibet	2.10	3.65	3.10
William Hill	2.05	3.60	3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.05 ▼ -0.30

X 3.80 ▲ +0.30

2 3.40 ▲ +0.70

27 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-30T20:10:18Z.