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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 4

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg

3 – 2 Full time

5′Han-Noah Massengo
18′Robin Fellhauer
27′Arthur Augusto De Matos Soares
52′Han-Noah MassengoYannik Keitel
53′Michael GregoritschRodrigo Ribeiro
53′Mert KömürAlexis Claude-Maurice
58′Calvin Marc Brackelmann
60′Marco Grüll
66′Marco Grüll
68′Eren DinkciMitchell Weiser
73′M. Baum
74′Marius WolfSeol Young-woo
77′Hennes Behrens
78′Ludovit ReisSalim Amani Musah
79′Amos PieperOskar Wójcik
83′Calvin Marc BrackelmannJeffrey Gouweleeuw
86′Niclas Füllkrug
90′Mitchell Weiser
90′Arthur Augusto De Matos SoaresMick Schmetgens

Weser-Stadion, BremenReferee: Bastian Dankert

Werder Bremen 37%
Draw 25%
Augsburg 38%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 7
11 Shots on target 4
59 Possession % 41
2 Corners 2
10 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1
2 Saves 7
601 Accurate passes 261

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Werder Bremen vs Augsburg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWerder BremenDrawAugsburg
Model26.4%25.6%48.1%
Market41.2%24.8%34.0%
Final37.5%25.0%37.5%
Edge-14.8%+0.8%+14.1%

Confidence: High

Why Augsburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.60.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Augsburg below the model: +14.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Werder Bremen ↓ / Augsburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 5%

Werder Bremen and Augsburg expected goals

Werder Bremen 1.60
Augsburg 1.97

Total expected goals: 3.58

Werder Bremen and Augsburg attack and defence ratings

Werder Bremen

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Augsburg

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg: result vs prediction

Werder Bremen 3 – 2 Augsburg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Augsburg 37.5% 2.67 +14.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.3% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.6% 1.48 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.9% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Werder Bremen37.5%
Draw25.0%
Augsburg37.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%
Both teams to scoreYes67.6%
No32.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.5%
12 (either side)75.0%
X2 (draw or away)62.5%
Handicap -1Augsburg win28.7%
Push (exactly one goal)19.4%
Loss51.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.2%
1-29.2%
2-16.8%

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg stats

Werder Bremen and Augsburg recent form

newest first
Werder Bremen DWLWLL
Augsburg DWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Werder Bremen wins 2Draws 5Augsburg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02Werder BremenAugsburgBundesliga1-3
2025-12-20AugsburgWerder BremenBundesliga0-0
2025-01-19Werder BremenAugsburgBundesliga0-2
2024-08-24AugsburgWerder BremenBundesliga2-2
2024-04-27AugsburgWerder BremenBundesliga0-3
2023-12-09Werder BremenAugsburgBundesliga2-0
2023-03-04AugsburgWerder BremenBundesliga2-1
2022-09-09Werder BremenAugsburgBundesliga0-1
2021-05-15AugsburgWerder BremenBundesliga2-0
2021-01-16Werder BremenAugsburgBundesliga2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 24.8%, away 34.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.37 3.94 2.94
Bet365 2.20 3.75 2.90
BetVictor 2.25 3.90 2.75
Betano 2.32 3.85 2.80
Betfair 2.30 3.90 2.80
Marathonbet 2.31 3.84 2.86
Pinnacle 2.31 3.83 2.94
SBO 2.31 3.41 2.47
William Hill 2.25 3.60 2.75
sport888 2.25 3.60 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.31 ▲ +0.11
X 3.84 ▲ +0.24
2 2.80 —

25 snapshots recorded, from .