Bundesliga
·
Full time
·Matchday 4
VfB Stuttgart
vs
Borussia Dortmund
0 – 1 Full time
| 13′ | Ermedin Demirović | ||
| 17′ | Angelo Stiller | ||
| 32′ | Nico Schlotterbeck | ||
| 46′ | Joey Veerman | ||
| 57′ | Kouakou Joane Gadou | ||
| 62′ | Joey VeermanJobe Bellingham | ||
| 62′ | Ethan NwaneriKonstantinos Karetsas | ||
| 64′ | Chris FührichJamie Leweling | ||
| 64′ | Deniz UndavDženan Pejčinović | ||
| 70′ | Maximilian Beier | ||
| 74′ | Serhou GuirassyFábio Silva | ||
| 81′ | Jobe Bellingham | ||
| 82′ | Julian Ryerson | ||
| 82′ | Maximilian BeierMarcel Sabitzer | ||
| 82′ | Julian RyersonRamy Bensebaini | ||
| 84′ | Bilal El KhannoussLeo Sauer | ||
| 84′ | Grischa PrömelNikolas Nartey |
VfB Stuttgart
35%
Draw
24%
Borussia Dortmund
41%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 473 | Accurate passes | 335 |
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund overview
Garuda Lions analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
| Probability | VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.5% | 20.9% | 55.7% |
| Market | 39.1% | 24.8% | 36.2% |
| Final | 35.2% | 23.8% | 41.0% |
| Edge | -15.6% | -3.9% | +19.5% |
Why Borussia Dortmund
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.88.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Borussia Dortmund below the model: +19.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
94%
3+ goals
80%
No goals
3%
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund expected goals
VfB Stuttgart
1.88
Borussia Dortmund
2.58
Total expected goals: 4.46
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund attack and defence ratings
VfB Stuttgart
Attack
1.34 +34%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Borussia Dortmund
Attack
1.45 +45%
Defence
0.76 -24%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: result vs prediction
VfB Stuttgart 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin — team news & stats
- Werder Bremen vs Augsburg
- Borussia M.Gladbach v Mainz 05 — match page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg — team news & stats
- Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne
- Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg
- SC Paderborn 07 v Hoffenheim — match page
Before and after this match
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 41.0% | 2.44 | +19.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 35.2% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 41.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.6% |
| No | 23.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win | 37.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 44.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.3% | |
| 1-3 | 6.7% |
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund stats
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund recent form
| VfB Stuttgart |
LWWLWL |
| Borussia Dortmund |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5VfB Stuttgart wins
2Draws
3Borussia Dortmund wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 3-3 |
| 2025-02-08 | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-22 | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 5-1 |
| 2024-04-06 | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-06 | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | DFB Pokal | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-11 | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-15 | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 3-3 |
| 2022-10-22 | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 5-0 |
| 2022-04-08 | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.2%, draw 24.6%, away 36.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 3.90 | 2.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 4.00 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.85 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.49 | 3.82 | 2.71 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.88 | 2.73 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.49 | 2.41 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| winamax_de | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.46 ▲ +0.36
X
3.89 ▲ +0.19
2
2.67 ▲ +0.17
26 snapshots recorded, from .