Bundesliga · 2026-09-19T13:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 4

Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne

2 – 1 Full time

10′			Albert Grönbaek
44′			Nicolás Capaldo
45′			Terem MoffiYussuf Poulsen
49′			Yussuf Poulsen
54′			Gideon Mensah
64′			Gideon MensahBorna Sosa
64′			Thijs DallingaRagnar Ache
67′			Albert GrönbaekPatson Daka
67′			Alessio Castro-MontesÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson
77′			David Moller WolfeLouis Pepe Lemke
77′			Zakaria El OuahdiBakery Jatta
77′			Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
81′			Tom KraußLuca Waldschmidt
81′			Linton MainaMarius Bülter
84′			Ellyes Skhiri
90′			Albert Sambi LokongaMartin Adeline
90′			Ragnar Ache

Volksparkstadion, HamburgerReferee: Matthias Jollenbeck

Hamburger SV

33%

Draw

26%

FC Cologne

41%

Confidence: High · blended with market odds

Match stats

12	Shots	18
7	Shots on target	5
45	Possession %	55
3	Corners	5
12	Fouls	14
2	Offsides	1
4	Saves	5
202	Accurate passes	499

Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Hamburger SV	Draw	FC Cologne
Model	24.7%	24.9%	50.4%
Market	36.0%	26.2%	37.8%
Final	33.2%	25.9%	40.9%
Edge	-11.3%	-1.3%	+12.7%

Confidence: High

Why FC Cologne

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.58.
The market prices FC Cologne below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

88%

3+ goals

68%

No goals

Hamburger SV and FC Cologne expected goals

Hamburger SV

1.58

FC Cologne

2.06

Total expected goals: 3.64

Hamburger SV and FC Cologne attack and defence ratings

Hamburger SV

Attack

0.80 -20%

Defence

1.23 +23%

FC Cologne

Attack

1.15 +15%

Defence

1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne: result vs prediction

Hamburger SV 2 – 1 FC Cologne

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Bundesliga

Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin — team news & stats · 2026-09-18
Werder Bremen vs Augsburg · 2026-09-19
Borussia M.Gladbach v Mainz 05 — match page · 2026-09-19
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund — match page · 2026-09-19
Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats · 2026-09-20
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg · 2026-09-20
SC Paderborn 07 v Hoffenheim — match page · 2026-09-20

Before and after this match

Hamburger SV, previous: RasenBallsport Leipzig v Hamburger SV analysis
Hamburger SV, next: Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction
FC Cologne, previous: FC Cologne – Werder Bremen, 2026-09-12
FC Cologne, next: FC Cologne – Borussia M.Gladbach, 2026-10-11

Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Cologne	40.9%	2.44	+12.7%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.6%	1.48	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	68.0%	1.47	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.1%	1.35	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	49.6%	2.02	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Hamburger SV	33.2%
	Draw	25.9%
	FC Cologne	40.9%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.6%
	Under 2.5	32.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	68.0%
	No	32.0%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	59.1%
	12 (either side)	74.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	66.8%
Handicap -1	FC Cologne win	30.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	19.6%
	Loss	49.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.8%
	1-2	9.3%
	2-2	6.6%

Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne stats

Hamburger SV and FC Cologne recent form

newest first

Hamburger SV	LLLWDW
FC Cologne	DLWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Hamburger SV wins 3Draws 3FC Cologne wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-14	Hamburger SV	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	1-1
2025-11-02	FC Cologne	Hamburger SV	Bundesliga	4-1
2025-01-18	Hamburger SV	FC Cologne	2. Bundesliga	1-0
2024-08-02	FC Cologne	Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga	1-2
2023-01-07	FC Cologne	Hamburger SV	Friendlies Clubs	4-0
2022-01-18	FC Cologne	Hamburger SV	DFB Pokal	1-1
2019-04-15	FC Cologne	Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga	1-1
2018-11-05	Hamburger SV	FC Cologne	2. Bundesliga	1-0
2018-01-20	Hamburger SV	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	0-2
2017-08-25	FC Cologne	Hamburger SV	Bundesliga	1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 26.2%, away 37.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.76	3.74	2.59
Bet365	2.62	3.60	2.50
BetVictor	2.60	3.70	2.45
Betano	2.62	3.70	2.50
Betfair	2.75	3.60	2.50
Marathonbet	2.70	3.58	2.54
Pinnacle	2.72	3.61	2.58
SBO	2.56	3.32	2.28
William Hill	2.62	3.40	2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.62 ▲ +0.08

X 3.60 ▼ -0.06

2 2.50 ▼ -0.18

17 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-11T08:10:02Z.