Bundesliga · 2026-10-10T13:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 5

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV

2 – 3 Full time

12′			Yussuf Poulsen
41′			Nicolai RembergMiro Muheim
45′			Sebastiaan Bornauw
53′			Bambasé Conté
55′			Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior
59′			Yussuf PoulsenOtto Emerson Stange
63′			Fisnik AsllaniAndrej Kramarić
63′			Tim LemperleAdam Hložek
65′			Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior
74′			Koki MachidaRobin Hranáč
74′			Adam DaghimAlexander Prass
76′			Louis Pepe LemkeAlexander Rossing Lelesiit
76′			Martin AdelineTerem Moffi
76′			Albert Sambi LokongaKofi Jeremy Amoako
80′			Leon Avdullahu
83′			Terem Moffi
87′			Bambasé ContéValentin Gendrey
90′			Miro Muheim

Prezero Arena, SinsheimReferee: Harm Osmers

Hoffenheim

65%

Draw

20%

Hamburger SV

15%

Confidence: High · blended with market odds

Match stats

17	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
64	Possession %	36
7	Corners	3
11	Fouls	15
3	Offsides	2
1	Saves	3
446	Accurate passes	213

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Hoffenheim	Draw	Hamburger SV
Model	58.6%	22.9%	18.5%
Market	66.8%	19.6%	13.6%
Final	64.8%	20.4%	14.8%
Edge	-2.1%	+0.8%	+1.2%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Hoffenheim

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.26.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

88%

3+ goals

68%

No goals

Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV expected goals

Hoffenheim

2.52

Hamburger SV

1.26

Total expected goals: 3.78

Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV attack and defence ratings

Hoffenheim

Attack

1.12 +12%

Defence

1.02 +2%

Hamburger SV

Attack

0.84 -16%

Defence

1.22 +22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: result vs prediction

Hoffenheim 2 – 3 Hamburger SV

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — match page · 2026-10-09
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-10-10
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich · 2026-10-10
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart · 2026-10-10
RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page · 2026-10-10
FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page · 2026-10-11
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

Hoffenheim, previous: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim prediction
Hoffenheim, next: Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş analysis
Hamburger SV, previous: Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne prediction
Hamburger SV, next: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Hoffenheim	64.8%	1.54	-2.1%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68.4%	1.46	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	65.8%	1.52	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	85.2%	1.17	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	41.4%	2.41	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Hoffenheim	64.8%
	Draw	20.4%
	Hamburger SV	14.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68.4%
	Under 2.5	31.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	65.8%
	No	34.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	85.2%
	12 (either side)	79.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	35.2%
Handicap -1	Hoffenheim win	38.3%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.3%
	Loss	41.4%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.1%
	2-1	9.5%
	2-0	7.6%

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV stats

Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV recent form

newest first

Hoffenheim	LLWLLW
Hamburger SV	WLLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Hoffenheim wins 2Draws 3Hamburger SV wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-25	Hamburger SV	Hoffenheim	Bundesliga	1-2
2025-12-13	Hoffenheim	Hamburger SV	Bundesliga	4-1
2018-04-14	Hoffenheim	Hamburger SV	Bundesliga	2-0
2017-11-26	Hamburger SV	Hoffenheim	Bundesliga	3-0
2017-04-08	Hamburger SV	Hoffenheim	Bundesliga	2-1
2016-11-20	Hoffenheim	Hamburger SV	Bundesliga	2-2
2016-03-19	Hamburger SV	Hoffenheim	Bundesliga	1-3
2015-10-23	Hoffenheim	Hamburger SV	Bundesliga	0-1
2015-03-14	Hoffenheim	Hamburger SV	Bundesliga	3-0
2014-10-19	Hamburger SV	Hoffenheim	Bundesliga	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 66.6%, draw 19.3%, away 14.1%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.49	4.98	6.98
Bet365	1.40	4.75	7.00
BetVictor	1.36	4.75	6.50
Betano	1.44	4.90	6.50
Betfair	1.40	5.00	7.00
Dafabet	1.44	5.40	6.40
Marathonbet	1.45	4.85	6.80
Pinnacle	1.42	5.27	6.99
SBO	1.36	4.58	5.70
William Hill	1.40	4.75	6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.42 ▲ +0.07

X 4.85 ▼ -0.38

2 6.99 ▼ -1.39

45 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-18T08:10:01Z.