Hoffenheim
vs
Hamburger SV
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hoffenheim
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
| Probability | Hoffenheim | Draw | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.6% | 22.9% | 18.5% |
| Market | 66.4% | 19.4% | 14.3% |
| Final | 64.4% | 20.3% | 15.3% |
| Edge | -7.8% | +3.5% | +4.2% |
Why Hoffenheim
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.26.
Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV match preview
Hoffenheim enters this Bundesliga match against Hamburger SV with a strong probability of winning at 66%. The expected goals suggest Hoffenheim may score around 2.53, while Hamburger SV is projected to net approximately 1.26 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Additionally, there is a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Hoffenheim has experienced mixed results with two losses followed by a win, while Hamburger SV has also shown inconsistency, with two losses and a draw in their last five matches. Historically, Hoffenheim has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Hamburger SV.
Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV team news
Hoffenheim news
- A. Hajdari β muscle injury
- Bernardo β achilles tendon injury
Hamburger SV news
- A. Gronbaek β thigh injury
- A. Rossing-Lelesiit β ankle injury
- M. Vuskovic β doping
- P. Daka β thigh injury
- Z. El Ouahdi β illness
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.78
Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV attack and defence ratings
Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 64.4% | 1.55 | -7.8% | 1.49 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% | 1.18 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.4% | 2.42 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 64.4% |
| Draw | 20.3% | |
| Hamburger SV | 15.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% |
| No | 34.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win | 38.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 41.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV stats
Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV recent form
| Hoffenheim |
LLWLLW |
| Hamburger SV |
WLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Hamburger SV | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 4-1 |
| 2018-04-14 | Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2017-11-26 | Hamburger SV | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2017-04-08 | Hamburger SV | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2016-11-20 | Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2016-03-19 | Hamburger SV | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2015-10-23 | Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2015-03-14 | Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2014-10-19 | Hamburger SV | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.4%, draw 19.4%, away 14.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.98 | 6.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.90 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.44 | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.85 | 6.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 4.90 | 6.94 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.58 | 5.70 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .