Hoffenheim
vs
Beşiktaş
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hoffenheim
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
| Probability | Hoffenheim | Draw | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.0% | 22.9% | 46.1% |
| Market | 48.7% | 23.7% | 27.6% |
| Final | 44.3% | 23.5% | 32.2% |
| Edge | -17.7% | -0.8% | +18.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş match preview
Hoffenheim faces Beşiktaş in the UEFA Europa League with a probability of winning set at 44% for Hoffenheim, 32% for Beşiktaş, and a 24% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a 7% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 71%, and the model suggests a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 71% as well.
In terms of expected goals, Hoffenheim is forecasted to achieve 1.66, while Beşiktaş is projected to score 2.04. Hoffenheim's recent form shows a mixed performance with two losses followed by a win, while Beşiktaş has had a stronger showing with four wins in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this matchup is B.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.70
Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş attack and defence ratings
Hoffenheim
Beşiktaş
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 44.3% | 2.26 | -17.7% | 2.03 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 44.3% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Beşiktaş | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% |
| No | 28.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win | 15.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.5% | |
| Loss | 69.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş stats
Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş recent form
| Hoffenheim |
LLWLLW |
| Beşiktaş |
LWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş season so far
Beşiktaş record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.7%, draw 23.7%, away 27.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 4.11 | 3.58 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 4.05 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 4.05 | 3.54 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 4.08 | 3.48 |
| SBO | 1.92 | 3.37 | 3.02 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .