AZ Alkmaar
vs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Garuda Lions Prediction: AZ Alkmaar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
| Probability | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 21.7% | 16.4% |
| Market | 73.4% | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Final | 70.5% | 18.0% | 11.6% |
| Edge | -11.5% | +5.1% | +6.4% |
Why AZ Alkmaar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva match preview
AZ Alkmaar faces Hapoel Beer Sheva in the UEFA Europa League with a strong probability of victory at 62%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at 62%, and both teams scoring has a probability of 58%.
In terms of recent form, AZ Alkmaar has won four of their last six matches, while Hapoel Beer Sheva has also shown resilience, with three wins in their last six. The expected goals indicate a solid offensive performance from AZ Alkmaar at 2.15, compared to Hapoel Beer Sheva's 1.04. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting model-only probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva attack and defence ratings
AZ Alkmaar
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Lyon vs Crystal Palace
- Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan — match page
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom — team news & stats
- Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad — match page
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia — team news & stats
- Torreense vs Sunderland — team news & stats
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page
Before and after this match
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 70.5% | 1.42 | -11.5% | 1.33 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 39.6% | 2.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 70.5% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 11.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 39.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.5% |
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva stats
AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva recent form
| AZ Alkmaar |
WLDWWW |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva |
WDWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.4%, draw 16.7%, away 10.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 5.73 | 9.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.75 | 12.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 5.70 | 10.50 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.30 | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 5.65 | 9.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 5.69 | 8.70 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 4.82 | 6.66 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .