Garuda Lions
Today
UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 2

Lyon vs Crystal Palace

3 – 2 Full time

8′Corentin Tolisso
36′Ismaila Sarr
45′Ernest Nuamah
50′Yeremy Pino
56′Yeremy Pino
58′Keito Nakamura
62′Ismaila SarrDaichi Kamada
62′Jörgen Strand LarsenEddie Nketiah
70′Khalis MerahPavel Šulc
70′Ernest NuamahKail Boudache
75′Yeremy PinoDario Osorio
75′Oscar MinguezaAnan Khalaili
76′Pavel Šulc
78′Noah Teye NarteyTanner Tessmann
81′Daichi Kamada
82′Chris Richards
86′Quinten TimberDwight McNeil
90′Corentin TolissoMads Bidstrup

Groupama Stadium, LyonReferee: Joao Pinheiro

Lyon 44%
Draw 25%
Crystal Palace 31%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 4
51 Possession % 49
5 Corners 3
4 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 1
2 Saves 1
425 Accurate passes 416

Lyon vs Crystal Palace overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lyon vs Crystal Palace

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLyonDrawCrystal Palace
Model58.3%20.6%21.1%
Market39.9%26.1%34.0%
Final44.5%24.7%30.8%
Edge+4.6%-1.4%-3.2%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Lyon

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.42.
  • The market prices Lyon below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lyon ↓ / Crystal Palace → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 8% 5% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 8% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Lyon and Crystal Palace expected goals

Lyon 2.39
Crystal Palace 1.42

Total expected goals: 3.81

Lyon and Crystal Palace attack and defence ratings

Lyon

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Crystal Palace

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lyon vs Crystal Palace: result vs prediction

Lyon 3 – 2 Crystal Palace

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Lyon vs Crystal Palace markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lyon 44.5% 2.25 +4.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.2% 1.37 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.6% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.3% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.7% 2.40 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lyon44.5%
Draw24.7%
Crystal Palace30.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%
Both teams to scoreYes69.6%
No30.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.2%
12 (either side)75.3%
X2 (draw or away)55.5%
Handicap -1Lyon win37.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss41.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.0%
1-18.3%
3-17.2%

Lyon vs Crystal Palace stats

Lyon and Crystal Palace recent form

newest first
Lyon LWWDWD
Crystal Palace WDWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lyon vs Crystal Palace head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Lyon wins 0Draws 1Crystal Palace wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-08-05Crystal PalaceLyonFriendlies Clubs2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lyon vs Crystal Palace odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.9%, draw 26.1%, away 34.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.39 3.68 2.93
Bet365 2.40 3.70 2.75
BetVictor 2.30 3.70 2.75
Betano 2.40 3.65 2.80
Betfair 2.40 3.50 2.80
Dafabet 2.29 3.65 3.05
Marathonbet 2.39 3.68 2.93
Pinnacle 2.45 3.66 2.84
SBO 2.38 3.50 2.60
William Hill 2.30 3.40 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.39 ▲ +0.21
X 3.66 ▲ +0.04
2 2.80 ▼ -0.25

14 snapshots recorded, from .