Lyon
vs
Crystal Palace
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lyon
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability
Lyon vs Crystal Palace overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lyon vs Crystal Palace
| Probability | Lyon | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.9% | 22.4% | 24.6% |
| Market | 43.1% | 26.0% | 30.8% |
| Final | 45.6% | 25.1% | 29.3% |
| Edge | +9.8% | -3.6% | -6.2% |
Why Lyon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.44.
- The market prices Lyon below the model: +9.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lyon vs Crystal Palace match preview
Lyon will face Crystal Palace in the UEFA Europa League on October 15, 2026. The model gives Lyon a 53% chance of winning, while Crystal Palace has a 25% probability of securing a victory, and a draw stands at 22%. The expected goals for Lyon are 2.15 compared to Crystal Palace's 1.44, indicating a favorable attacking outlook for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Lyon has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Crystal Palace's recent performance includes two wins, two losses, and one draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 69%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 68%, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lyon and Crystal Palace expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Lyon and Crystal Palace attack and defence ratings
Lyon
Crystal Palace
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Lyon vs Crystal Palace markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 45.6% | 2.19 | +9.8% | 2.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.2% | 1.47 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 45.6% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Crystal Palace | 29.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.2% |
| No | 31.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
Lyon vs Crystal Palace stats
Lyon and Crystal Palace recent form
| Lyon |
WWDWDL |
| Crystal Palace |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lyon vs Crystal Palace head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Lyon vs Crystal Palace odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 26.0%, away 30.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.72 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.27 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.66 | 3.18 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.63 | 3.14 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.09 | 2.74 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .