Lyon
vs
Nice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lyon
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Lyon vs Nice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lyon vs Nice
| Probability | Lyon | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.8% | 20.8% | 17.4% |
| Market | 55.3% | 23.3% | 21.4% |
| Final | 56.9% | 22.7% | 20.4% |
| Edge | +6.5% | -2.5% | -4.0% |
Why Lyon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lyon below the model: +6.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lyon vs Nice match preview
Lyon will host Nice in their upcoming Ligue 1 clash, with Lyon holding a 58% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Lyon's expected goals stand at 2.22, while Nice's are significantly lower at 1.02. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Lyon recording three wins in their last five matches, while Nice has two wins in their last five.
In their last six encounters, Lyon has dominated with four wins, one draw, and one loss against Nice. The probability of over 2.5 goals in this match is estimated at 60%, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 56%. With a confidence grade of B, this matchup promises to be competitive, reflecting both teams' current standings.
Lyon and Nice team news
Lyon news
- L. Openda — leg injury
- M. Ouedraogo — knee injury
- N. Tagliafico — knee injury
Nice news
- A. Abdi — muscle injury
- A. Mendy — knee injury
- L. Abergel — knee injury
- M. Bombito — leg injury
- M. Sanson — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lyon and Nice expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Lyon and Nice attack and defence ratings
Lyon
Nice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lyon vs Nice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 56.9% | 1.76 | +6.5% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win | 38.6% | 2.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 56.9% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Nice | 20.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win | 38.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 38.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Lyon vs Nice stats
Lyon and Nice recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lyon and Nice season so far
Lyon record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nice record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Lyon vs Nice head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Lyon | Nice | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Nice | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 3-2 |
| 2025-03-09 | Nice | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-01 | Lyon | Nice | Ligue 1 | 4-1 |
| 2024-02-16 | Lyon | Nice | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2023-08-27 | Nice | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2023-06-03 | Nice | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2022-11-11 | Lyon | Nice | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-12 | Lyon | Nice | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2021-10-24 | Nice | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lyon vs Nice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.1%, draw 23.2%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 4.16 | 4.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 4.12 | 4.52 |
| SBO | 1.65 | 3.57 | 4.15 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .