Paris FC
vs
Rennes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paris FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Paris FC vs Rennes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paris FC vs Rennes
| Probability | Paris FC | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.9% | 21.0% | 19.2% |
| Market | 41.6% | 27.8% | 30.6% |
| Final | 46.1% | 26.1% | 27.7% |
| Edge | +18.3% | -6.9% | -11.4% |
Why Paris FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.12.
- The market prices Paris FC below the model: +18.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Paris FC vs Rennes match preview
Paris FC faces Rennes in Ligue 1 with a probability of 46% for a home win, while Rennes has a 28% chance of victory and a draw stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Paris FC, with a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score. Expected goals are calculated at 2.26 for Paris FC and 1.07 for Rennes.
In terms of recent form, Paris FC has recorded one loss, two wins, and a draw in their last five matches, while Rennes has been more consistent with four wins and a draw in their recent outings. Historically, Rennes has dominated their last two encounters, winning both matches against Paris FC. The confidence grade for this match is A.
Paris FC and Rennes team news
Paris FC news
- J. Ikone — thigh injury
- N. Sangui — muscle injury
- S. Chergui — knee injury
- V. Marchetti — inactive
Rennes news
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paris FC and Rennes expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Paris FC and Rennes attack and defence ratings
Paris FC
Rennes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paris FC vs Rennes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 46.1% | 2.17 | +18.3% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 46.1% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Rennes | 27.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win | 37.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 40.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
Paris FC vs Rennes stats
Paris FC and Rennes recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paris FC and Rennes season so far
Paris FC record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rennes record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paris FC vs Rennes head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Rennes | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Paris FC | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paris FC vs Rennes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 27.3%, away 31.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.45 | 3.28 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.45 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 3.36 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.33 | 3.29 |
| SBO | 2.28 | 3.17 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .