Lorient
vs
Paris FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paris FC
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Lorient vs Paris FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lorient vs Paris FC
| Probability | Lorient | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.4% | 25.8% | 47.9% |
| Market | 29.3% | 28.3% | 42.4% |
| Final | 28.6% | 27.7% | 43.7% |
| Edge | -3.0% | -2.5% | +5.5% |
Why Paris FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Paris FC below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lorient vs Paris FC match preview
Lorient faces Paris FC in this Ligue 1 matchup, with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 29% chance of a Lorient victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 43% likelihood that Paris FC will win. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, occurring at an 11% frequency. Both teams have a 50% chance of producing over 2.5 goals, while the likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 53%.
In terms of recent form, Lorient has recorded a sequence of results including two draws and three losses, while Paris FC is on a strong run with four wins and two draws in their last six matches. The expected goals for Lorient is 1.16, compared to Paris FC's 1.57. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters shows Lorient with one win, one draw, and Paris FC also with one win.
Lorient and Paris FC team news
Lorient news
- B. Fadiga — ankle injury
- N. Mbamba — muscle injury
- P. Katseris — hamstring injury
Paris FC news
- E. Mbemba — leg injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lorient and Paris FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Lorient and Paris FC attack and defence ratings
Lorient
Paris FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lorient vs Paris FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 43.7% | 2.29 | +5.5% | 2.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 28.6% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Paris FC | 43.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% |
| No | 46.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 0-1 | 10.6% | |
| 1-2 | 9.4% |
Lorient vs Paris FC stats
Lorient and Paris FC recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lorient and Paris FC season so far
Lorient record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Paris FC record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Lorient vs Paris FC head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Lorient | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Lorient | Paris FC | Coupe de France | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Paris FC | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Paris FC | Lorient | Ligue 2 | 3-2 |
| 2024-12-14 | Lorient | Paris FC | Ligue 2 | 2-0 |
| 2021-02-09 | Lorient | Paris FC | Coupe de France | 2-1 |
| 2019-07-29 | Lorient | Paris FC | Ligue 2 | 3-0 |
| 2019-04-15 | Paris FC | Lorient | Ligue 2 | 2-2 |
| 2018-11-09 | Lorient | Paris FC | Ligue 2 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lorient vs Paris FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.3%, draw 28.3%, away 42.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.34 | 3.41 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.35 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.29 |
| Marathonbet | 3.25 | 3.32 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 3.40 | 3.39 | 2.25 |
| SBO | 2.89 | 3.04 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .