Monaco
vs
Toulouse
2 – 2 Full time
| 29′ | Edan Diop | ||
| 38′ | Matthis Abline | ||
| 45′ | Jacen Russell-RoweSion Oppong | ||
| 47′ | Flavio Nazinho | ||
| 48′ | Casper Tengstedt | ||
| 51′ | Denis ZakariaSafouane Benzahra | ||
| 54′ | Aleksandr Golovin | ||
| 58′ | Mathys DetourbetFolarin Balogun | ||
| 58′ | Edan DiopStanis Idumbo | ||
| 59′ | Sion Oppong | ||
| 70′ | Cristian Casseres | ||
| 71′ | Ilyas AziziNiko Sigur | ||
| 75′ | VandersonJordan Teze | ||
| 75′ | Matthis AblineAnsu Fati | ||
| 77′ | Rafik MessaliIsmaïl Diallo | ||
| 84′ | Casper TengstedtSantiago Hidalgo | ||
| 84′ | Alexis VossahAron Dønnum | ||
| 90′ | Sion Oppong |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 574 | Accurate passes | 403 |
Monaco vs Toulouse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monaco vs Toulouse
| Probability | Monaco | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 22.6% | 29.6% |
| Market | 58.4% | 22.6% | 19.0% |
| Final | 55.8% | 22.6% | 21.6% |
| Edge | -2.6% | -0.0% | +2.7% |
Why Monaco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monaco and Toulouse expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Monaco and Toulouse attack and defence ratings
Monaco
Toulouse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Monaco vs Toulouse: result vs prediction
Monaco 2 – 2 Toulouse
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monaco vs Toulouse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 55.8% | 1.79 | -2.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 55.8% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Toulouse | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% |
| No | 33.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% |
Monaco vs Toulouse stats
Monaco and Toulouse recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monaco and Toulouse going into this match
Monaco record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Toulouse record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Monaco vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Monaco | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-07 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Monaco | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-02-18 | Monaco | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-20 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2023-06-03 | Monaco | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2022-11-06 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2019-12-04 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monaco vs Toulouse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.4%, draw 22.6%, away 19.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 4.41 | 5.23 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.25 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 4.30 | 5.09 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 4.01 | 4.63 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
48 snapshots recorded, from .