Monaco
vs
Toulouse
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monaco
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Monaco vs Toulouse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monaco vs Toulouse
| Probability | Monaco | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 22.6% | 29.7% |
| Market | 59.5% | 22.2% | 18.3% |
| Final | 56.6% | 22.3% | 21.1% |
| Edge | -11.8% | +0.3% | +11.4% |
Why Monaco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Monaco vs Toulouse match preview
Monaco enters this fixture against Toulouse with a strong recent form, having won five of their last six matches, alongside one draw. Their expected goals stand at 2.02, indicating a solid attacking performance, while they have a 66% probability of scoring over 2.5 goals and also a 66% chance for both teams to score. Historically, Monaco has had the upper hand in their last six encounters with three wins, two draws, and one loss to Toulouse.
Toulouse, on the other hand, has struggled recently, managing only one win in their last six matches, accompanied by two draws and three losses. Their expected goals are at 1.48, suggesting they may face challenges in breaking through Monaco's defense. The model gives Monaco a 56% probability of winning, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 being the most anticipated outcome at 9%.
Monaco and Toulouse team news
Monaco news
- A. Fati — calf injury
- M. Coulibaly — muscle injury
- P. Brunner — suspended
- S. Idumbo — groin injury
Toulouse news
- R. Nicolaisen — calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monaco and Toulouse expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.51
Monaco and Toulouse attack and defence ratings
Monaco
Toulouse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monaco vs Toulouse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 56.6% | 1.77 | -11.8% | 1.64 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 56.6% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| Toulouse | 21.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% |
| No | 33.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win | 27.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% |
Monaco vs Toulouse stats
Monaco and Toulouse recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monaco and Toulouse season so far
Monaco record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Toulouse record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Monaco vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Monaco | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-07 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Monaco | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-02-18 | Monaco | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-20 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2023-06-03 | Monaco | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2022-11-06 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2019-12-04 | Toulouse | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monaco vs Toulouse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.5%, draw 22.2%, away 18.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 4.47 | 5.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.62 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.35 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 4.54 | 5.33 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.86 | 4.60 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .