Rennes
vs
Auxerre
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rennes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Rennes vs Auxerre overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rennes vs Auxerre
| Probability | Rennes | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.3% | 21.6% | 26.1% |
| Market | 66.1% | 19.3% | 14.5% |
| Final | 62.7% | 19.9% | 17.4% |
| Edge | -13.8% | +2.3% | +11.6% |
Why Rennes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.43.
Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rennes vs Auxerre match preview
Rennes will host Auxerre in this Ligue 1 matchup, with Rennes holding a strong probability of 63% to win, while Auxerre stands at 17%. The expected goals suggest a favorable offensive performance for Rennes at 2.18 compared to Auxerre's 1.43. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Rennes, occurring with a 9% likelihood.
Both teams have shown varied recent form, with Rennes recording a sequence of results including two wins and a draw, while Auxerre has fluctuated with three wins and two losses in their last six matches. Historical head-to-head encounters indicate a competitive edge for Auxerre with two wins, though Rennes has also secured one win and a draw in their last four meetings.
Rennes and Auxerre team news
Rennes news
Auxerre news
- A. Diousse — knee injury
- B. Okoh — knee injury
- C. Makosso — yellow cards
- M. Senaya — hamstring injury
- T. Siwe — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rennes and Auxerre expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Rennes and Auxerre attack and defence ratings
Rennes
Auxerre
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rennes vs Auxerre markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 62.7% | 1.60 | -13.8% | 1.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 62.7% |
| Draw | 19.9% | |
| Auxerre | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% |
| No | 33.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 47.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
Rennes vs Auxerre stats
Rennes vs Auxerre head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Auxerre | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 0-3 |
| 2025-10-19 | Rennes | Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-06 | Rennes | Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Auxerre | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rennes vs Auxerre odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.1%, draw 19.3%, away 14.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 5.14 | 6.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.85 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47 | 5.03 | 6.36 |
| SBO | 1.39 | 4.34 | 5.61 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .