Estac Troyes
vs
Marseille
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marseille
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Estac Troyes vs Marseille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estac Troyes vs Marseille
| Probability | Estac Troyes | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 20.3% | 27.7% |
| Market | 25.4% | 24.7% | 49.9% |
| Final | 32.0% | 23.6% | 44.4% |
| Edge | +26.6% | -4.4% | -22.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Estac Troyes vs Marseille match preview
Estac Troyes faces Marseille in this Ligue 1 clash with the model indicating a 31% chance of a home victory, a 24% likelihood of a draw, and a 45% probability of an away win for Marseille. The most likely scoreline is projected at 1-2, with a 6% chance of occurring. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring match, with a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of expected goals, Estac Troyes is forecasted to generate 2.41, while Marseille is projected at 1.66. Recent form shows Estac Troyes with three losses, one win, one draw, and Marseille with five losses followed by one win. The confidence grade for this match is B, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Estac Troyes and Marseille team news
Estac Troyes news
- I. Boura — hip injury
- M. Ifnaoui — calf injury
- P. Gozzi — muscle injury
- Y. Kone — injury
- Y. Titi — leg injury
Marseille news
- A. Gouiri — thigh injury
- D. Cornelius — hip injury
- G. Kondogbia — thigh injury
- P. Hojbjerg — muscle injury
- T. Weah — suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estac Troyes and Marseille expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.07
Estac Troyes and Marseille attack and defence ratings
Estac Troyes
Marseille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estac Troyes vs Marseille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 44.4% | 2.25 | -22.2% | 1.94 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estac Troyes | 32.0% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Marseille | 44.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.0% |
| No | 27.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win | 13.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.4% | |
| Loss | 72.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Estac Troyes vs Marseille stats
Estac Troyes and Marseille recent form
| Estac Troyes |
LLLWDL |
| Marseille |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estac Troyes vs Marseille head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Estac Troyes vs Marseille odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.4%, draw 24.7%, away 49.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.03 | 4.05 | 1.92 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.93 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.87 |
| Dafabet | 3.75 | 3.90 | 1.94 |
| Marathonbet | 3.92 | 3.94 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 3.78 | 3.95 | 1.93 |
| SBO | 3.26 | 3.38 | 1.90 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .