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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 5

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain

1 – 2 Full time

30′Igor PaixãoAngel Gomes
32′Timothy Weah
39′Nuno Mendes
59′Khvicha KvaratskheliaFerrán Torres
63′Amine HaritKeyliane Abdallah
65′Fabián RuizMaghnes Akliouche
66′Ferrán Torres
72′Angel Gomes
74′Marcos Aoás Corrêa
77′Timothy Weah
79′Ousmane DembéléMika Godts
79′Désiré DoueLucas Beraldo
81′Keyliane Abdallah
84′Himad AbdelliKelyann Bezahaf
84′Neal MaupayFaris Moumbagna
84′Emerson PalmieriUlisses Garcia
90′Angel Gomes

Orange Vélodrome, MarseilleReferee: Francois Letexier

Marseille 18%
Draw 19%
Paris Saint Germain 63%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 31
4 Shots on target 10
39 Possession % 61
3 Corners 7
9 Fouls 3
1 Offsides 2
8 Saves 3
327 Accurate passes 561

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMarseilleDrawParis Saint Germain
Model27.6%19.7%52.7%
Market15.0%18.4%66.6%
Final18.2%18.8%63.1%
Edge+12.6%+1.3%-13.9%

Confidence: High

Why Paris Saint Germain

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.82.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Marseille ↓ / Paris Saint Ge → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 7% 8% 6% 7% 2 6% 7% 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 2%

Marseille and Paris Saint Germain expected goals

Marseille 1.82
Paris Saint Germain 2.40

Total expected goals: 4.22

Marseille and Paris Saint Germain attack and defence ratings

Marseille

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Paris Saint Germain

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain: result vs prediction

Marseille 1 – 2 Paris Saint Germain

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Paris Saint Germain 63.1% 1.59 -13.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.0% 1.28 — —
Both teams to score Yes 75.0% 1.33 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.8% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.4% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Marseille18.2%
Draw18.8%
Paris Saint Germain63.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.0%
Under 2.522.0%
Both teams to scoreYes75.0%
No25.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)36.9%
12 (either side)81.2%
X2 (draw or away)81.8%
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win33.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.6%
Loss47.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.0%
2-26.9%
1-16.8%

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain stats

Marseille and Paris Saint Germain recent form

newest first
Marseille LLLLWW
Paris Saint Germain WWLDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Marseille wins 1Draws 7Paris Saint Germain wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-08Paris Saint GermainMarseilleLigue 15-0
2026-01-08Paris Saint GermainMarseilleTrophée des Champions2-2
2025-09-22MarseilleParis Saint GermainLigue 11-0
2025-03-16Paris Saint GermainMarseilleLigue 13-1
2024-10-27MarseilleParis Saint GermainLigue 10-3
2024-03-31MarseilleParis Saint GermainLigue 10-2
2023-09-24Paris Saint GermainMarseilleLigue 14-0
2023-02-26MarseilleParis Saint GermainLigue 10-3
2023-02-08MarseilleParis Saint GermainCoupe de France2-1
2022-10-16Paris Saint GermainMarseilleLigue 11-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 15.1%, draw 18.7%, away 66.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.76 5.28 1.47
Bet365 6.25 5.00 1.42
BetVictor 6.50 5.25 1.40
Betano 6.20 5.20 1.50
Betfair 6.50 5.00 1.40
Marathonbet 6.65 5.20 1.45
Pinnacle 6.38 5.30 1.45
SBO 5.90 4.84 1.40
William Hill 5.80 4.75 1.44
onexbet 4.97 4.52 1.69

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.38 ▲ +1.60
X 5.20 ▲ +0.73
2 1.44 ▼ -0.28

28 snapshots recorded, from .