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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 5

Le Mans vs Lorient

2 – 1 Full time

3′Adil Bourabaa
11′Jean-Victor Makengo
17′Panos KatserisThéo Le Bris
19′Arsène Kouassi
51′Habib Diallo
57′Habib Diallo
58′Yasser LarouciLucas Calodat
59′Habib DialloDame Gueye
61′Arthur Avom
65′Gabin BernardeauSouleymane Faye
65′Ibrahima BaldeMamadou Kone
72′Lucas BretelleAntoine Rabillard
72′Jean VercruysseAlexandre Lauray
74′Djibril Sidibé
75′Jean-Victor MakengoIsak Jensen
75′Nathaniel AdjeiNosa Edward Obaretin
78′Adil Bourabaa
78′Isak Jensen
85′Adil BourabaaBilal Brahimi

MMArena, Le MansReferee: Geoffrey Kubler

Le Mans 39%
Draw 27%
Lorient 33%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 2
51 Possession % 49
1 Corners 3
15 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1
1 Saves 5
384 Accurate passes 367

Le Mans vs Lorient overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Le Mans vs Lorient

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLe MansDrawLorient
Model54.5%23.5%22.0%
Market34.4%28.7%36.9%
Final39.4%27.4%33.1%
Edge+20.0%-5.2%-14.9%

Confidence: Medium

Why Le Mans

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.07.
  • The market prices Le Mans below the model: +20.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Le Mans ↓ / Lorient → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 10% 11% 6% 2 9% 10% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 6%

Le Mans and Lorient expected goals

Le Mans 1.91
Lorient 1.07

Total expected goals: 2.98

Le Mans and Lorient attack and defence ratings

Le Mans

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Lorient

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Le Mans vs Lorient: result vs prediction

Le Mans 2 – 1 Lorient

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Le Mans vs Lorient markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Le Mans 39.4% 2.54 +20.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.1% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.3% 1.81 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.5% 2.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Le Mans39.4%
Draw27.4%
Lorient33.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%
Both teams to scoreYes55.3%
No44.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.9%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)60.6%
Handicap -1Le Mans win31.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss45.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
1-09.9%
2-19.8%

Le Mans vs Lorient stats

Le Mans and Lorient recent form

newest first
Le Mans DDLDWD
Lorient DWLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Le Mans vs Lorient head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

1Le Mans wins 0Draws 3Lorient wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2020-02-04LorientLe MansLigue 24-2
2019-08-23Le MansLorientLigue 21-2
2019-08-13LorientLe MansCoupe de la Ligue1-2
2012-01-11Le MansLorientCoupe de la Ligue0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Le Mans vs Lorient odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 28.2%, away 37.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.88 3.43 2.66
Bet365 2.80 3.20 2.62
BetVictor 2.70 3.40 2.55
Betano 2.72 3.40 2.57
Betfair 2.75 3.40 2.55
Marathonbet 2.79 3.34 2.60
Pinnacle 2.86 3.36 2.63
SBO 2.48 3.16 2.43
William Hill 2.62 3.20 2.50
coolbet 3.10 3.50 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.79 ▼ -0.31
X 3.35 ▼ -0.15
2 2.61 ▲ +0.21

27 snapshots recorded, from .