Lorient
vs
Toulouse
2 – 2 Full time
| 17′ | Panos Katseris | ||
| 37′ | Ibrahima Balde | ||
| 39′ | Noah Mbamba | ||
| 45′ | Rafik MessaliNiko Sigur | ||
| 45′ | Santiago HidalgoCasper Tengstedt | ||
| 48′ | Casper Tengstedt | ||
| 58′ | Panos KatserisThéo Le Bris | ||
| 58′ | Gabin BernardeauIsak Jensen | ||
| 67′ | Ilyas AziziSion Oppong | ||
| 68′ | Thomas Jorgensen | ||
| 69′ | Ibrahima BaldeMamadou Kone | ||
| 69′ | Noah MbambaArthur Avom | ||
| 84′ | Niklas SchmidtAlexis Vossah | ||
| 84′ | Christ TapeIsmaïl Diallo |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 372 | Accurate passes | 581 |
Lorient vs Toulouse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lorient vs Toulouse
| Probability | Lorient | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.7% | 24.2% | 32.0% |
| Market | 39.6% | 28.8% | 31.7% |
| Final | 40.6% | 27.6% | 31.8% |
| Edge | +4.1% | -4.5% | +0.4% |
Why Lorient
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.41.
- The market prices Lorient below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lorient and Toulouse expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Lorient and Toulouse attack and defence ratings
Lorient
Toulouse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lorient vs Toulouse: result vs prediction
Lorient 2 – 2 Toulouse
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lorient vs Toulouse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 40.6% | 2.46 | +4.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 40.6% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Toulouse | 31.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lorient win | 22.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 56.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Lorient vs Toulouse stats
Lorient vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Toulouse | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Lorient | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Lorient | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-03 | Toulouse | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-23 | Lorient | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2022-08-21 | Toulouse | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2018-10-31 | Toulouse | Lorient | Coupe de la Ligue | 0-1 |
| 2017-02-08 | Lorient | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2016-12-10 | Toulouse | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 3-2 |
| 2016-04-16 | Lorient | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lorient vs Toulouse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 28.5%, away 32.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.54 | 3.25 | 2.72 |
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 3.48 | 3.11 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.25 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.42 | 3.42 | 3.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 3.43 | 3.07 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 3.26 | 2.81 |
| Unibet | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| winamax_de | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .