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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 4

Lille vs Estac Troyes

2 – 0 Full time

18′Tiago Santos
45′Lucas MaronnierNoah Donkor
61′Hákon Arnar HaraldssonMaurits Kjaergaard
71′Dilane BakwaEthan Mbappe
71′Ayase UedaOlivier Giroud
71′Basar OnalGaëtan Perrin
75′Kandet DiawaraTimothee Nkada
75′Mouhamed DiopIron Gomis
80′Hugo PicardRenaud Ripart
80′Antoine MilleYacouba Koné
82′Olivier Giroud
86′Ngal'ayel MukauBenjamin André
90′Ethan Mbappe

Stade Pierre-Mauroy, LilleReferee: Romain Lissorgue

Lille 59%
Draw 21%
Estac Troyes 20%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 1
63 Possession % 37
2 Corners 5
11 Fouls 20
3 Offsides 2
1 Saves 4
560 Accurate passes 268

Lille vs Estac Troyes overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lille vs Estac Troyes

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLilleDrawEstac Troyes
Model33.6%24.2%42.3%
Market67.2%20.1%12.7%
Final58.8%21.1%20.1%
Edge-33.6%+4.1%+29.5%

Confidence: Medium

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lille ↓ / Estac Troyes → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 6% 1 6% 11% 9% 2 8% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Lille and Estac Troyes expected goals

Lille 1.54
Estac Troyes 1.66

Total expected goals: 3.20

Lille and Estac Troyes attack and defence ratings

Lille

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Estac Troyes

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lille vs Estac Troyes: result vs prediction

Lille 2 – 0 Estac Troyes

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Lille vs Estac Troyes markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lille 58.8% 1.70 -33.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.4% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.5% 1.60 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.9% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.4% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lille58.8%
Draw21.1%
Estac Troyes20.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%
Both teams to scoreYes62.5%
No37.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.9%
12 (either side)78.9%
X2 (draw or away)41.2%
Handicap -1Lille win15.7%
Push (exactly one goal)17.9%
Loss66.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
1-28.9%
2-17.8%

Lille vs Estac Troyes stats

Lille and Estac Troyes recent form

newest first
Lille LWDWLW
Estac Troyes LWDLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lille vs Estac Troyes head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Lille wins 3Draws 3Estac Troyes wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-06-03Estac TroyesLilleLigue 11-1
2023-01-15LilleEstac TroyesLigue 15-1
2023-01-08LilleEstac TroyesCoupe de France2-0
2022-05-01Estac TroyesLilleLigue 13-0
2021-12-04LilleEstac TroyesLigue 12-1
2018-01-20Estac TroyesLilleLigue 11-0
2017-10-14LilleEstac TroyesLigue 12-2
2016-01-23LilleEstac TroyesLigue 11-3
2015-11-21Estac TroyesLilleLigue 11-1
2015-10-28LilleEstac TroyesCoupe de la Ligue2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lille vs Estac Troyes odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 67.5%, draw 19.9%, away 12.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.40 4.60 7.25
1xBet 1.45 5.02 7.80
Bet365 1.42 4.75 7.00
BetVictor 1.40 4.75 7.50
Betano 1.45 4.80 7.80
Betfair 1.40 4.60 7.50
Dafabet 1.41 4.90 7.40
Marathonbet 1.43 4.95 7.70
Pinnacle 1.42 4.98 7.54
SBO 1.37 4.19 6.18
Unibet 1.34 4.75 8.50
William Hill 1.40 4.50 6.50
betclic_fr 1.38 4.45 6.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.42 ▲ +0.15
X 4.75 ▼ -0.20
2 7.50 ▼ -1.50

29 snapshots recorded, from .