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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 4

Auxerre vs Nice

1 – 0 Full time

44′Kevin Danois
71′Remy Labeau LascaryRomain Faivre
72′Niels NkounkouAli Abdi
74′Djibril Coulibaly
74′Cameron Archer
81′Danny NamasoNaouirou Ahamada
82′Arthur PiedfortPierre Ekwah
86′Sepe Elye WahiSofiane Diop
86′Mohamed AmouraNathan Ngoumou
86′Axel WitselHicham Boudaoui
86′Mohamed AbdelmoneimIsak Jansson
87′Cameron ArcherRayan Mandengue

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, AuxerreReferee: Francois Letexier

Auxerre 35%
Draw 28%
Nice 37%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 4
32 Possession % 68
3 Corners 8
9 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 3
4 Saves 4
207 Accurate passes 611

Auxerre vs Nice overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Auxerre vs Nice

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAuxerreDrawNice
Model41.6%23.7%34.7%
Market33.0%28.8%38.2%
Final35.2%27.5%37.3%
Edge+8.6%-5.1%-3.5%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Auxerre ↓ / Nice → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 6% 11% 8% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 4%

Auxerre and Nice expected goals

Auxerre 1.79
Nice 1.54

Total expected goals: 3.32

Auxerre and Nice attack and defence ratings

Auxerre

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.37 +37%

Nice

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Auxerre vs Nice: result vs prediction

Auxerre 1 – 0 Nice

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Auxerre vs Nice markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nice 37.3% 2.68 -3.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.7% 1.59 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.4% 1.55 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.5% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.3% 1.53 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Auxerre35.2%
Draw27.5%
Nice37.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%
Both teams to scoreYes64.4%
No35.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.7%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)64.8%
Handicap -1Nice win16.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.0%
Loss65.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.5%
2-18.7%
1-27.9%

Auxerre vs Nice stats

Auxerre and Nice recent form

newest first
Auxerre LLLWWW
Nice DLDLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Auxerre vs Nice head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Auxerre wins 4Draws 3Nice wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10AuxerreNiceLigue 12-1
2025-08-23NiceAuxerreLigue 13-1
2025-03-14NiceAuxerreLigue 11-1
2024-08-18AuxerreNiceLigue 12-1
2024-01-06NiceAuxerreCoupe de France0-0
2023-03-03NiceAuxerreLigue 11-1
2022-10-16AuxerreNiceLigue 11-1
2018-10-31NiceAuxerreCoupe de la Ligue3-2
2012-04-21NiceAuxerreLigue 11-0
2011-12-11AuxerreNiceLigue 12-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Auxerre vs Nice odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 28.7%, away 37.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.40 3.20 2.90
1xBet 2.98 3.47 2.55
Bet365 2.88 3.30 2.45
BetVictor 2.88 3.40 2.40
Betano 2.82 3.30 2.55
Betfair 2.88 3.30 2.50
Dafabet 2.46 3.25 2.95
Marathonbet 2.94 3.42 2.51
Pinnacle 2.96 3.47 2.49
SBO 2.69 3.22 2.45
Unibet 2.48 3.20 2.80
William Hill 2.75 3.20 2.45
winamax_de 2.30 3.25 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.88 ▲ +0.58
X 3.30 ▲ +0.05
2 2.49 ▼ -0.31

28 snapshots recorded, from .