Nice
vs
Lille
2 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Mohamed Abdelmoneim | ||
| 22′ | Nathan Ngoy | ||
| 45′ | Xavier Mandza | ||
| 55′ | Ethan MbappeDilane Bakwa | ||
| 57′ | Mohamed Amoura | ||
| 58′ | Youssouf NdayishimiyeAlidu Seidu | ||
| 64′ | Basar OnalOsame Sahraoui | ||
| 64′ | Benjamin AndréMaurits Kjaergaard | ||
| 64′ | Hákon Arnar HaraldssonOlivier Giroud | ||
| 67′ | Mohamed Amoura | ||
| 73′ | Djibril CoulibalyEverton Pereira | ||
| 74′ | Sepe Elye WahiSofiane Diop | ||
| 77′ | Nabil BentalebNgal'ayel Mukau | ||
| 77′ | Mohamed AmouraNathan Ngoumou | ||
| 78′ | Niels NkounkouAli Abdi | ||
| 79′ | Ayase Ueda | ||
| 90′ | Maurits Kjaergaard |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 7 | Saves | 3 |
| 338 | Accurate passes | 471 |
Nice vs Lille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nice vs Lille
| Probability | Nice | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.8% | 25.4% | 44.7% |
| Market | 26.4% | 27.2% | 46.4% |
| Final | 27.3% | 26.7% | 46.0% |
| Edge | +3.4% | -1.7% | -1.7% |
Why Lille
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nice and Lille expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Nice and Lille attack and defence ratings
Nice
Lille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nice vs Lille: result vs prediction
Nice 2 – 1 Lille
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nice vs Lille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 46.0% | 2.17 | -1.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nice | 27.3% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Lille | 46.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 55.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 9.2% |
Nice vs Lille stats
Nice vs Lille head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Lille | Nice | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Nice | Lille | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-17 | Lille | Nice | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Nice | Lille | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-19 | Lille | Nice | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-12 | Nice | Lille | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-11 | Nice | Lille | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-01-29 | Nice | Lille | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-31 | Lille | Nice | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2022-05-14 | Nice | Lille | Ligue 1 | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nice vs Lille odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.4%, draw 27.2%, away 46.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.70 | 3.64 | 2.13 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.60 | 3.54 | 2.07 |
| Pinnacle | 3.65 | 3.56 | 2.09 |
| SBO | 3.34 | 3.37 | 2.03 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| sport888 | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .