Toulouse
vs
Le Havre
3 – 2 Full time
| 34′ | Christ Tape | ||
| 49′ | Casper Tengstedt | ||
| 51′ | Casper Tengstedt | ||
| 58′ | Niko Sigur | ||
| 69′ | Rayan FofanaEnzo Koffi | ||
| 69′ | Djibril OuziadSota Nakamura | ||
| 70′ | Vincent SassoJunior Mwanga | ||
| 71′ | Josh Maja | ||
| 72′ | Casper TengstedtSantiago Hidalgo | ||
| 72′ | Ilyas AziziSion Oppong | ||
| 72′ | Rafik MessaliAlexis Vossah | ||
| 74′ | Seny Koumbassa | ||
| 79′ | Thomas Jorgensen | ||
| 81′ | Sota Nakamura | ||
| 82′ | Josh MajaIsmail Bouneb | ||
| 82′ | Amir RichardsonRassoul Ndiaye | ||
| 88′ | Mbwana Ally Samatta |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 5 | Saves | 2 |
| 409 | Accurate passes | 354 |
Toulouse vs Le Havre overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toulouse vs Le Havre
| Probability | Toulouse | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.9% | 22.8% | 24.2% |
| Market | 56.2% | 23.7% | 20.0% |
| Final | 55.4% | 23.5% | 21.1% |
| Edge | -3.3% | -0.9% | +4.2% |
Why Toulouse
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.23.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toulouse and Le Havre expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Toulouse and Le Havre attack and defence ratings
Toulouse
Le Havre
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Toulouse vs Le Havre: result vs prediction
Toulouse 3 – 2 Le Havre
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Toulouse vs Le Havre markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 55.4% | 1.80 | -3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 55.4% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Le Havre | 21.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toulouse win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.1% |
Toulouse vs Le Havre stats
Toulouse vs Le Havre head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Le Havre | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Toulouse | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Le Havre | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-4 |
| 2024-09-15 | Toulouse | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-10 | Le Havre | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-05 | Toulouse | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2022-02-21 | Toulouse | Le Havre | Ligue 2 | 4-0 |
| 2021-09-13 | Le Havre | Toulouse | Ligue 2 | 1-1 |
| 2021-05-04 | Le Havre | Toulouse | Ligue 2 | 0-1 |
| 2020-12-19 | Toulouse | Le Havre | Ligue 2 | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toulouse vs Le Havre odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.1%, draw 23.8%, away 20.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 4.16 | 4.93 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 4.05 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 4.09 | 4.95 |
| SBO | 1.71 | 3.42 | 3.97 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| winamax_fr | 1.62 | 3.35 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
27 snapshots recorded, from .