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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 5

Auxerre vs Brest

2 – 1 Full time

23′Pathé Mboup
45′Remy Labeau LascaryRomain Faivre
45′Arthur PiedfortNaouirou Ahamada
46′Cameron Archer
68′Giovani VersiniMama Baldé
73′Christ Makosso
78′Gautier LlorisLucas Tousart
78′Pathé MboupDjylian N´Guessan
82′Kenny Lala
83′Raphaël Le Guen
86′Joris ChotardJoseph Nonge
86′Ludovic AjorqueMathis Lainé
86′Fredrik OppegardRayan Mandengue
87′Danny NamasoPierre Ekwah

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, AuxerreReferee: Guillaume Paradis

Auxerre 32%
Draw 26%
Brest 42%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 2
52 Possession % 48
8 Corners 3
19 Fouls 13
4 Offsides 1
1 Saves 3
335 Accurate passes 311

Auxerre vs Brest overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Auxerre vs Brest

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAuxerreDrawBrest
Model32.7%22.1%45.3%
Market31.9%27.5%40.6%
Final32.1%26.2%41.7%
Edge+0.8%-5.4%+4.7%

Confidence: High

Why Brest

  • The market prices Brest below the model: +4.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Auxerre ↓ / Brest → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 5% 1 9% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

Auxerre and Brest expected goals

Auxerre 1.74
Brest 1.96

Total expected goals: 3.70

Auxerre and Brest attack and defence ratings

Auxerre

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.28 +28%

Brest

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Auxerre vs Brest: result vs prediction

Auxerre 2 – 1 Brest

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Auxerre vs Brest markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Brest 41.7% 2.40 +4.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.0% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.7% 1.43 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.8% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.7% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Auxerre32.1%
Draw26.2%
Brest41.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.0%
Under 2.530.0%
Both teams to scoreYes69.7%
No30.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.3%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)67.9%
Handicap -1Brest win25.5%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss54.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.9%
1-28.6%
2-17.2%

Auxerre vs Brest stats

Auxerre and Brest recent form

newest first
Auxerre WLLLWW
Brest LWDDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Auxerre vs Brest head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Auxerre wins 3Draws 5Brest wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21AuxerreBrestLigue 13-0
2026-01-04BrestAuxerreLigue 12-0
2025-02-14BrestAuxerreLigue 12-2
2024-09-27AuxerreBrestLigue 13-0
2023-05-14BrestAuxerreLigue 11-0
2022-10-02AuxerreBrestLigue 11-1
2019-02-11BrestAuxerreLigue 21-0
2018-08-31AuxerreBrestLigue 20-2
2018-03-09AuxerreBrestLigue 21-2
2017-10-13BrestAuxerreLigue 21-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Auxerre vs Brest odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 27.5%, away 40.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.10 3.57 2.42
Bet365 3.00 3.50 2.35
BetVictor 2.90 3.60 2.30
Betano 2.90 3.45 2.40
Betfair 3.00 3.40 2.40
Marathonbet 3.02 3.48 2.36
Pinnacle 3.06 3.51 2.37
SBO 2.78 3.31 2.33
William Hill 2.80 3.30 2.30
winamax_fr 2.15 3.15 2.65

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.00 ▲ +0.85
X 3.48 ▲ +0.33
2 2.36 ▼ -0.29

28 snapshots recorded, from .