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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 4

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain

0 – 1 Full time

5′Ferrán Torres
30′Kamory Doumbia
39′Achraf HakimiFabián Ruiz
66′Ousmane DembéléMaghnes Akliouche
66′Khvicha KvaratskheliaDésiré Doue
66′Giovani VersiniJoseph Nonge
77′Warren Zaire-EmeryDro Fernández
77′Ferrán TorresMika Godts
78′Joris ChotardLucas Tousart
78′Kamory DoumbiaDjylian N´Guessan
84′Vitinha
87′Dro Fernández
88′Bradley LockoJustin Bourgault

Stade Francis-Le-Blé, BrestReferee: Willy Delajod

Brest 14%
Draw 16%
Paris Saint Germain 70%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 7
41 Possession % 59
3 Corners 2
13 Fouls 7
3 Offsides 1
6 Saves 5
356 Accurate passes 575

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Brest vs Paris Saint Germain

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBrestDrawParis Saint Germain
Model31.1%20.9%48.1%
Market8.6%14.2%77.2%
Final14.2%15.8%69.9%
Edge+22.4%+6.7%-29.1%

Confidence: High

Why Paris Saint Germain

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.83.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Brest ↓ / Paris Saint Ge → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 4% 5% 1 8% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 2%

Brest and Paris Saint Germain expected goals

Brest 1.83
Paris Saint Germain 2.18

Total expected goals: 4.01

Brest and Paris Saint Germain attack and defence ratings

Brest

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Paris Saint Germain

Attack 1.51 +51%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain: result vs prediction

Brest 0 – 1 Paris Saint Germain

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Paris Saint Germain 69.9% 1.43 -29.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.0% 1.33 — —
Both teams to score Yes 73.4% 1.36 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 85.8% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.9% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Brest14.2%
Draw15.8%
Paris Saint Germain69.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.0%
Under 2.525.0%
Both teams to scoreYes73.4%
No26.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)30.1%
12 (either side)84.2%
X2 (draw or away)85.8%
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win28.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss51.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.2%
1-17.7%
2-27.1%

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain stats

Brest and Paris Saint Germain recent form

newest first
Brest WDDDLL
Paris Saint Germain WLDDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Brest wins 1Draws 9Paris Saint Germain wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10Paris Saint GermainBrestLigue 11-0
2025-10-25BrestParis Saint GermainLigue 10-3
2025-02-19Paris Saint GermainBrestUEFA Champions League7-0
2025-02-11BrestParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League0-3
2025-02-01BrestParis Saint GermainLigue 12-5
2024-09-14Paris Saint GermainBrestLigue 13-1
2024-02-07Paris Saint GermainBrestCoupe de France3-1
2024-01-28Paris Saint GermainBrestLigue 12-2
2023-10-29BrestParis Saint GermainLigue 12-3
2023-03-11BrestParis Saint GermainLigue 11-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 9.5%, draw 14.6%, away 75.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 7.80 5.20 1.34
1xBet 12.40 6.80 1.27
Bet365 10.00 7.00 1.22
BetVictor 11.50 6.50 1.22
Betano 11.00 6.70 1.27
Betfair 12.00 6.50 1.22
Dafabet 7.80 5.60 1.34
Marathonbet 12.25 6.70 1.25
Pinnacle 10.82 6.79 1.25
SBO 7.91 5.42 1.23
Unibet 8.50 5.50 1.30
William Hill 10.00 6.00 1.22
winamax_de 6.50 5.50 1.32

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 11.00 ▲ +3.50
X 6.70 ▲ +1.00
2 1.23 ▼ -0.04

30 snapshots recorded, from .