Lille
vs
Le Havre
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lille
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Lille vs Le Havre overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lille vs Le Havre
| Probability | Lille | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 22.2% | 23.4% |
| Market | 65.9% | 20.1% | 13.9% |
| Final | 63.0% | 20.7% | 16.3% |
| Edge | -11.6% | +2.1% | +9.5% |
Why Lille
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lille vs Le Havre match preview
Lille is favored to win against Le Havre with a 63% probability, while a draw stands at 21% and Le Havre at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Lille, which has a 10% likelihood. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals at 62%, and both teams are projected to score at a rate of 61%. Lille's expected goals are 2.08 compared to Le Havre's 1.24.
In terms of recent form, Lille has recorded a mixed performance with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches. Le Havre has struggled, with just one win and four draws in the same timeframe. Historically, Lille has dominated their recent encounters with Le Havre, winning four of the last six matchups, including one draw and one loss.
Lille and Le Havre team news
Lille news
- H. Igamane — knee injury
Le Havre news
- A. Toure — knee injury
- E. Jelert — thigh injury
- F. Mambimbi — achilles tendon injury
- L. Mpasi-Nzau — achilles tendon injury
- S. Zagadou — knee injury
- T. Pembele — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lille and Le Havre expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Lille and Le Havre attack and defence ratings
Lille
Le Havre
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lille vs Le Havre markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 63.0% | 1.59 | -11.6% | 1.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 63.0% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Le Havre | 16.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win | 32.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
Lille vs Le Havre stats
Lille and Le Havre recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lille and Le Havre season so far
Lille record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Le Havre record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Lille vs Le Havre head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Lille | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Le Havre | Lille | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Lille | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-28 | Le Havre | Lille | Ligue 1 | 0-3 |
| 2024-02-17 | Lille | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
| 2023-10-01 | Le Havre | Lille | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2023-07-26 | Lille | Le Havre | Friendlies Clubs | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lille vs Le Havre odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.9%, draw 20.1%, away 13.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.49 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.65 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.75 | 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47 | 4.81 | 6.58 |
| SBO | 1.37 | 4.25 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .