Paris Saint Germain
vs
Le Mans
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paris Saint Germain
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
| Probability | Paris Saint Germain | Draw | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.4% | 21.2% | 26.4% |
| Market | 87.9% | 7.9% | 4.1% |
| Final | 79.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% |
| Edge | -35.5% | +13.2% | +22.2% |
Why Paris Saint Germain
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans match preview
Paris Saint Germain enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 80%, while Le Mans has a lower chance at 9%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of PSG, with an expected goals tally of 2.25 for PSG and 1.48 for Le Mans. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 70%, and both teams scoring is assessed at 68%.
In terms of recent form, Paris Saint Germain has recorded three wins, one loss, and two draws in their last six matches, while Le Mans has two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows PSG with one win against Le Mans, who has yet to secure a victory in their encounters. The confidence grade for this match is B, indicating a reliable prediction based on blended probabilities and market odds.
Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans team news
Paris Saint Germain news
- F. Torres — ankle injury
- N. Mendes — rest
- O. Dembele — rest
- S. Mayulu — groin injury
- W. Zaire-Emery — thigh injury
Le Mans news
- A. Bourabaa — ankle injury
- D. Sidibe — yellow cards
- E. Colas — injury
- L. Buades — knock
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans attack and defence ratings
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 79.0% | 1.27 | -35.5% | 1.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 79.0% |
| Draw | 11.3% | |
| Le Mans | 9.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% |
| No | 31.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.7% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans stats
Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans recent form
| Paris Saint Germain |
WWWLDD |
| Le Mans |
WDDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans season so far
Paris Saint Germain record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Le Mans record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-04 | Le Mans | Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France | 0-2 |
| 2021-07-14 | Paris Saint Germain | Le Mans | Friendlies Clubs | 4-0 |
| 2019-12-18 | Le Mans | Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de la Ligue | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 87.9%, draw 7.9%, away 4.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.09 | 14.90 | 31.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.10 | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.07 | 9.50 | 19.00 |
| Betano | 1.10 | 9.75 | 28.00 |
| Betfair | 1.08 | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.10 | 11.00 | 23.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.08 | 12.50 | 26.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.09 | 12.72 | 20.58 |
| SBO | 1.08 | 9.26 | 13.48 |
| William Hill | 1.08 | 12.00 | 23.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .