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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 6

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans

3 – 1 Full time

19′Lucas Beraldo
45′Habib DialloDame Gueye
47′Dame Gueye
54′Louis Mafouta
58′João NevesWarren Zaire-Emery
58′Dro FernándezFabián Ruiz
59′Lucas BeraldoVitinha
59′Mika GodtsKhvicha Kvaratskhelia
61′Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
65′Louis Mafouta
66′Jean VercruysseBilal Brahimi
68′Maghnes Akliouche
72′Achraf HakimiDésiré Doue
72′Louis MafoutaWilliam Harhouz
72′Alexandre LaurayAntoine Rabillard
77′Lucas CalodatYasser Larouci
90′Rayan Bamba
90′Bilal Brahimi
90′Noa Boissé

Parc des Princes, ParisReferee: Mathieu Vernice

Paris Saint Germain 77%
Draw 13%
Le Mans 10%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 3
72 Possession % 28
4 Corners 4
3 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 5
2 Saves 5
626 Accurate passes 182

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityParis Saint GermainDrawLe Mans
Model52.5%21.2%26.3%
Market85.3%9.6%5.1%
Final77.1%12.5%10.4%
Edge-8.2%+2.9%+5.3%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Paris Saint Germain

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.54.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Paris Saint Ge ↓ / Le Mans → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 8% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans expected goals

Paris Saint Germain 2.28
Le Mans 1.54

Total expected goals: 3.82

Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans attack and defence ratings

Paris Saint Germain

Attack 1.61 +61%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Le Mans

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: result vs prediction

Paris Saint Germain 3 – 1 Le Mans

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Paris Saint Germain 77.1% 1.30 -8.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.2% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.4% 1.46 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 89.6% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.2% 2.07 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Paris Saint Germain77.1%
Draw12.5%
Le Mans10.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.2%
Under 2.529.8%
Both teams to scoreYes68.4%
No31.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)89.6%
12 (either side)87.5%
X2 (draw or away)22.9%
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win31.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss48.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.1%
1-18.7%
2-26.7%

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans stats

Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans recent form

newest first
Paris Saint Germain WWWLDD
Le Mans WDDLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans going into this match

league record before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Le Mans record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

3Paris Saint Germain wins 0Draws 0Le Mans wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-02-04Le MansParis Saint GermainCoupe de France0-2
2021-07-14Paris Saint GermainLe MansFriendlies Clubs4-0
2019-12-18Le MansParis Saint GermainCoupe de la Ligue1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 85.3%, draw 9.6%, away 5.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.14 10.70 20.00
Bet365 1.12 9.50 17.00
BetVictor 1.10 10.00 20.00
Betano 1.15 9.00 23.00
Betfair 1.11 11.00 20.00
Dafabet 1.13 9.80 18.00
Marathonbet 1.13 10.25 19.75
Pinnacle 1.12 10.29 17.70
SBO 1.12 8.68 14.92
William Hill 1.12 9.00 17.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.12 ▲ +0.04
X 9.90 ▼ -2.46
2 18.88 ▼ -3.12

48 snapshots recorded, from .