Manchester City
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Garuda Lions Prediction: Manchester City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain
| Probability | Manchester City | Draw | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.0% | 20.8% | 22.2% |
| Market | 41.6% | 24.2% | 34.3% |
| Final | 45.4% | 23.3% | 31.2% |
| Edge | +15.4% | -3.3% | -12.1% |
Why Manchester City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Manchester City below the model: +15.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain match preview
Manchester City enters the match against Paris Saint Germain with a strong recent form, having won their last six matches. The model gives Manchester City a 57% probability of winning, while Paris Saint Germain has a 22% chance of securing a victory. The expected goals suggest that Manchester City is likely to score around 2.37, compared to Paris Saint Germain's 1.46, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
The likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals stands at 73%, and both teams scoring is also probable at 70%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Manchester City, with a 9% chance of occurring. The overall confidence in these probabilities is rated as A, reflecting a strong analytical backing for the projections.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.82
Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain attack and defence ratings
Manchester City
Paris Saint Germain
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Feyenoord v Como — match page
- Lask Linz vs Liverpool — team news & stats
- Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe — match page
- Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
- Roma vs Real Madrid
- Real Betis v FC Porto — match page
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC — team news & stats
- Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart
Before and after this match
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 45.4% | 2.20 | +15.4% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.0% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 45.4% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Paris Saint Germain | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.3% |
| No | 29.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 43.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | |
| 3-1 | 7.0% |
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain stats
Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain recent form
| Manchester City |
WWWWWW |
| Paris Saint Germain |
WWWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.6%, draw 24.2%, away 34.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.96 | 2.97 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 4.00 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 4.00 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.33 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.86 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.94 | 2.77 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.48 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .