UEFA Champions League
·
Full time
·League Stage - 2
Manchester City
vs
Paris Saint Germain
2 – 4 Full time
| 13′ | Désiré Doue | ||
| 15′ | Ousmane Dembélé | ||
| 32′ | Vitinha | ||
| 45′ | Jeremy DokuIliman Ndiaye | ||
| 45′ | Rúben DiasMatheus Nunes | ||
| 45′ | Rayan CherkiAyyoub Bouaddi | ||
| 53′ | Erling Haaland | ||
| 61′ | Antoine Semenyo | ||
| 62′ | Maghnes Akliouche | ||
| 66′ | Désiré DoueKhvicha Kvaratskhelia | ||
| 69′ | Warren Zaire-Emery | ||
| 75′ | Erling Haaland | ||
| 76′ | Ousmane DembéléFerrán Torres | ||
| 76′ | Maghnes AklioucheJoão Neves | ||
| 84′ | Warren Zaire-EmeryLucas Beraldo | ||
| 84′ | Fabián RuizLucas Hernández | ||
| 90′ | Enzo FernándezNico O'Reilly |
Manchester City
50%
Draw
23%
Paris Saint Germain
27%
Match stats
| 27 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 6 | Saves | 6 |
| 423 | Accurate passes | 375 |
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain
| Probability | Manchester City | Draw | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.7% | 20.1% | 22.2% |
| Market | 47.2% | 23.7% | 29.1% |
| Final | 49.8% | 22.8% | 27.4% |
| Edge | +2.6% | -0.9% | -1.7% |
Why Manchester City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Manchester City below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
92%
3+ goals
76%
No goals
2%
Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain expected goals
Manchester City
2.47
Paris Saint Germain
1.54
Total expected goals: 4.01
Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain attack and defence ratings
Manchester City
Attack
1.33 +33%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Paris Saint Germain
Attack
1.57 +57%
Defence
0.99 -1%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain: result vs prediction
Manchester City 2 – 4 Paris Saint Germain
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Lens v Sporting CP — match page
- Sabah FA vs Slavia Praha — team news & stats
- Arsenal vs Lille
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven — match page
- Inter vs Club Brugge KV — team news & stats
- Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
- Villarreal v Napoli — match page
- Galatasaray vs Barcelona — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 49.8% | 2.01 | +2.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 49.8% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Paris Saint Germain | 27.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.7% |
| No | 27.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win | 37.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% | |
| 3-1 | 7.0% |
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain stats
Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain recent form
| Manchester City |
WWWWWW |
| Paris Saint Germain |
WWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
4Manchester City wins
1Draws
2Paris Saint Germain wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-22 | Paris Saint Germain | Manchester City | UEFA Champions League | 4-2 |
| 2021-11-24 | Manchester City | Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League | 2-1 |
| 2021-09-28 | Paris Saint Germain | Manchester City | UEFA Champions League | 2-0 |
| 2021-05-04 | Manchester City | Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League | 2-0 |
| 2021-04-28 | Paris Saint Germain | Manchester City | UEFA Champions League | 1-2 |
| 2016-04-12 | Manchester City | Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League | 1-0 |
| 2016-04-06 | Paris Saint Germain | Manchester City | UEFA Champions League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.2%, draw 23.7%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06 | 4.20 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 4.15 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 3.95 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 4.15 | 3.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 4.18 | 3.31 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 3.67 | 2.98 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.04 ▼ -0.21
X
4.05 ▲ +0.15
2
3.30 ▲ +0.55
16 snapshots recorded, from .