Lens
vs
Sporting CP
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lens
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Lens vs Sporting CP overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lens vs Sporting CP
| Probability | Lens | Draw | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.2% | 22.9% | 32.0% |
| Market | 38.2% | 25.2% | 36.6% |
| Final | 39.9% | 24.6% | 35.5% |
| Edge | +7.0% | -2.3% | -4.7% |
Why Lens
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.70.
- The market prices Lens below the model: +7.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lens vs Sporting CP match preview
Lens faces Sporting CP in the UEFA Champions League with a kickoff scheduled for October 13, 2026. The model indicates a 45% probability of a Lens victory, while Sporting CP has a 32% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 23%. The expected goals for Lens are 2.04, compared to Sporting CP's 1.70, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Lens, with an 8% probability.
Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, as indicated by a 72% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance that both teams will score. Recent form shows Lens with a record of L-D-W-L-L-W, contrasting with Sporting CP's D-D-W-W-W-W, highlighting their recent success. The confidence grade for this match is B, based solely on model probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lens and Sporting CP expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Lens and Sporting CP attack and defence ratings
Lens
Sporting CP
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lens vs Sporting CP markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 39.9% | 2.50 | +7.0% | 2.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 39.9% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Sporting CP | 35.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% |
| No | 28.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Lens vs Sporting CP stats
Lens and Sporting CP recent form
| Lens |
LDWLLW |
| Sporting CP |
DDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lens vs Sporting CP head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Lens vs Sporting CP odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.2%, draw 25.2%, away 36.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.62 | 3.85 | 2.67 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.75 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.83 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 3.28 | 2.44 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .