Garuda Lions
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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz

2 – 3 Full time

5′Luis Suárez
15′Christoph Lang
33′Christoph Lang
45′Sascha Horvath
52′Lukas JungwirthTobias Schützenauer
63′Sasa Kalajdzic
64′Issa Doumbia
65′João Simões
65′Sascha HorvathAlessandro Schöpf
65′Christoph LangSamuel Adeniran
67′João SimõesFlávio Gonçalves
68′Krystof Danek
72′Sasa Kalajdzic
79′Geny CatamoLuís Guilherme
79′Nestory IrankundaJesse Derry
80′Issa DoumbiaFotis Ioannidis
83′Sasa KalajdzicMoses Usor
83′Kasper JorgensenFlorian Flecker
89′Luis Suárez
89′Tobias Schützenauer
90′Krystof Danek

Estádio José Alvalade, LisbonReferee: Nick Walsh

Sporting CP 73%
Draw 15%
Lask Linz 11%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 7
62 Possession % 38
7 Corners 4
10 Fouls 22
3 Offsides 3
4 Saves 2
507 Accurate passes 292

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting CP vs Lask Linz

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySporting CPDrawLask Linz
Model67.8%16.9%15.3%
Market75.3%14.8%9.8%
Final73.5%15.3%11.2%
Edge-1.9%+0.5%+1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Sporting CP

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sporting CP ↓ / Lask Linz → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 2 6% 8% 3 8% 4+ 8% 11% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 80%
No goals 2%

Sporting CP and Lask Linz expected goals

Sporting CP 2.88
Lask Linz 1.39

Total expected goals: 4.27

Sporting CP and Lask Linz attack and defence ratings

Sporting CP

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Lask Linz

Attack 1.51 +51%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz: result vs prediction

Sporting CP 2 – 3 Lask Linz

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sporting CP 73.5% 1.36 -1.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80.0% 1.25 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.5% 1.40 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.8% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 Sporting CP win 48.6% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sporting CP73.5%
Draw15.3%
Lask Linz11.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580.0%
Under 2.520.0%
Both teams to scoreYes71.5%
No28.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.8%
12 (either side)84.7%
X2 (draw or away)26.5%
Handicap -1Sporting CP win48.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.1%
Loss32.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.0%
3-17.7%
1-16.1%

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz stats

Sporting CP and Lask Linz recent form

newest first
Sporting CP WWDDWW
Lask Linz WLLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

1Sporting CP wins 0Draws 2Lask Linz wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2020-10-01Sporting CPLask LinzUEFA Europa League1-4
2019-12-12Lask LinzSporting CPUEFA Europa League3-0
2019-10-03Sporting CPLask LinzUEFA Europa League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 75.3%, draw 14.8%, away 9.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.29 6.91 10.70
Bet365 1.27 5.75 11.00
BetVictor 1.25 6.50 10.00
Betano 1.33 6.10 9.50
Betfair 1.25 6.50 10.50
Dafabet 1.29 6.40 9.00
Marathonbet 1.26 6.60 10.25
Pinnacle 1.27 6.55 9.32
SBO 1.27 6.09 8.49
William Hill 1.25 6.00 9.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.27 ▲ +0.01
X 6.45 ▲ +0.23
2 9.75 ▲ +0.61

12 snapshots recorded, from .